Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Panovska-Griffiths J
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8062670 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Modelling the potential impact of mask use in schools and society on COVID-19 control in the UK.
Panovska-Griffiths J J Kerr C C CC Waites W W Stuart R M RM Mistry D D Foster D D Klein D J DJ Viner R M RM Bonell C C
Scientific reports 20210422 1
As the UK reopened after the first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic, crucial questions emerged around the role for ongoing interventions, including test-trace-isolate (TTI) strategies and mandatory masks. Here we assess the importance of masks in secondary schools by evaluating their impact over September 1-October 23, 2020. We show that, assuming TTI levels from August 2020 and no fundamental changes in the virus's transmissibility, adoption of masks in secondary schools would have reduced the pre ...[more]
Similar Datasets
Project description:BackgroundFace mask use has been associated with declines in COVID-19 incidence rates worldwide. A handful of studies have examined the factors associated with face mask use in North America during the COVID-19 pandemic; however, much less is known about the patterns of face mask use and the impact of mask mandates during this time. This information could have important policy implications, now and in the event of future pandemics.ObjectiveTo address existing knowledge gaps, we assessed face mask usage patterns among British Columbia COVID-19 Population Mixing Patterns (BC-Mix) survey respondents and evaluated the impact of the provincial mask mandate on these usage patterns.MethodsBetween September 2020 and July 2022, adult British Columbia residents completed the web-based BC-Mix survey, answering questions on the circumstances surrounding face mask use or lack thereof, movement patterns, and COVID-19-related beliefs. Trends in face mask use over time were assessed, and associated factors were evaluated using multivariable logistic regression. A stratified analysis was done to examine effect modification by the provincial mask mandate.ResultsOf the 44,301 respondents, 81.9% reported wearing face masks during the 23-month period. In-store and public transit mask mandates supported monthly face mask usage rates of approximately 80%, which was further bolstered up to 92% with the introduction of the provincial mask mandate. Face mask users mostly visited retail locations (51.8%) and travelled alone by car (49.6%), whereas nonusers mostly traveled by car with others (35.2%) to their destinations-most commonly parks (45.7%). Nonusers of face masks were much more likely to be male than female, especially in retail locations and restaurants, bars, and cafés. In a multivariable logistic regression model adjusted for possible confounders, factors associated with face mask use included age, ethnicity, health region, mode of travel, destination, and time period. The odds of face mask use were 3.68 times greater when the provincial mask mandate was in effect than when it was not (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 3.68, 95% CI 3.33-4.05). The impact of the mask mandate was greatest in restaurants, bars, or cafés (mandate: aOR 7.35, 95% CI 4.23-12.78 vs no mandate: aOR 2.81, 95% CI 1.50-5.26) and in retail locations (mandate: aOR 19.94, 95% CI 14.86-26.77 vs no mandate: aOR 7.71, 95% CI 5.68-10.46).ConclusionsStudy findings provide added insight into the dynamics of face mask use during the COVID-19 pandemic. Mask mandates supported increased and sustained high face mask usage rates during the first 2 years of the pandemic, having the greatest impact in indoor public locations with limited opportunity for physical distancing targeted by these mandates. These findings highlight the utility of mask mandates in supporting high face mask usage rates during the COVID-19 pandemic.
| S-EPMC9838719 | biostudies-literature
Project description:For improving human health, reformulation can be a tool as it allows individuals to consume products of choice while reducing intake of less desirable nutrients, such as sugars and fats, and potentially increasing intake of beneficial nutrients such as fibre. The potential effects of reformulating foods with increased fibre on diet and health need to be better understood. The objective of this statistical modelling study was to understand how fibre enrichment can affect the diet and health of consumers. The UK National Diet and Nutrition Survey datasets from 2014 to 2015 and 2015 to 2016 were utilised to evaluate intakes of fibre and kilocalories with a dietary intake model. Foods and beverages eligible for fibre enrichment were identified (n 915) based on EU legislation for fibre content claims. Those people who meet dietary reference values and fibre enrichment health outcomes such as weight, CVD and type 2 diabetes risk reductions were quantified pre- and post-fibre reformulation via Reynolds et al., D'Agostino et al. and QDiabetes algorithms, respectively. The fibre enrichment intervention showed a mean fibre intake of 19·9 g/d in the UK, signifying a 2·2 g/d increase from baseline. Modelling suggested that 5·9 % of subjects could achieve a weight reduction, 72·2 % a reduction in cardiovascular risk and 71·7 % a reduced risk of type 2 diabetes with fibre fortification (all Ps ≤ 0·05). This study gives a good overview of the potential public health benefits of reformulating food products using a straightforward enrichment scenario.
| S-EPMC9597481 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The educational and social benefits provided by school far outweigh the risks of a possible COVID-19 contamination of children in school environments or in daycare centers. Following summer break, the back-to-school period in France is taking place in the context of an increasing viral spread and requires strict adherence to health measures to limit the risk of outbreaks in communities. Based on a critical update of the role of children in the transmission of the infection, and of children's susceptibility to infection, the French Pediatric Society published practical guidelines for school re-entry and the management of COVID-19 infections in schools.
| S-EPMC7473250 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundFace mask wearing has been an important part of the response to the COVID-19 pandemic. As vaccination coverage progresses in countries, relaxation of such practices is increasing. Subsequent COVID-19 surges have raised the questions of whether face masks should be encouraged or required and for how long. Here, we aim to assess the value of maintaining face masks use indoors according to different COVID-19 vaccination coverage levels in the USA.MethodsIn this computational simulation-model study, we developed and used a Monte Carlo simulation model representing the US population and SARS-CoV-2 spread. Simulation experiments compared what would happen if face masks were used versus not used until given final vaccination coverages were achieved. Different scenarios varied the target vaccination coverage (70-90%), the date these coverages were achieved (Jan 1, 2022, to July 1, 2022), and the date the population discontinued wearing face masks.FindingsSimulation experiments revealed that maintaining face mask use (at the coverage seen in the USA from March, 2020, to July, 2020) until target vaccination coverages were achieved was cost-effective and in many cases cost saving from both the societal and third-party payer perspectives across nearly all scenarios explored. Face mask use was estimated to be cost-effective and usually cost saving when the cost of face masks per person per day was ≤US$1·25. In all scenarios, it was estimated to be cost-effective to maintain face mask use for about 2-10 weeks beyond the date that target vaccination coverage (70-90%) was achieved, with this added duration being longer when the target coverage was achieved during winter versus summer. Factors that might increase the transmissibility of the virus (eg, emergence of the delta [B.1.617.2] and omicron [B.1.1.529] variants), or decrease vaccine effectiveness (eg, waning immunity or escape variants), or increase social interactions among certain segments of the population, only increased the cost savings or cost-effectiveness provided by maintaining face mask use.InterpretationOur study provides strong support for maintaining face mask use until and a short time after achieving various final vaccination coverage levels, given that maintaining face mask use can be not just cost-effective, but even cost saving. The emergence of the omicron variant and the prospect of future variants that might be more transmissible and reduce vaccine effectiveness only increases the value of face masks.FundingThe Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, the National Institute of General Medical Sciences, the National Science Foundation, the National Center for Advancing Translational Sciences, and the City University of New York.
| S-EPMC8903840 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Since its outbreak, COVID-19 has impacted world regions differentially. Whereas some regions still record tens of thousands of new infections daily, other regions have contained the virus. What explains these striking regional differences? We advance a cultural psychological perspective on mask usage, a precautionary measure vital for curbing the pandemic. Four large-scale studies provide evidence that collectivism (versus individualism) positively predicts mask usage-both within the United States and across the world. Analyzing a dataset of all 3,141 counties of the 50 US states (based on 248,941 individuals), Study 1a revealed that mask usage was higher in more collectivistic US states. Study 1b replicated this finding in another dataset of 16,737 individuals in the 50 US states. Analyzing a dataset of 367,109 individuals in 29 countries, Study 2 revealed that mask usage was higher in more collectivistic countries. Study 3 replicated this finding in a dataset of 277,219 Facebook users in 67 countries. The link between collectivism and mask usage was robust to a host of control variables, including cultural tightness-looseness, political affiliation, demographics, population density, socioeconomic indicators, universal health coverage, government response stringency, and time. Our research suggests that culture fundamentally shapes how people respond to crises like the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding cultural differences not only provides insight into the current pandemic, but also helps the world prepare for future crises.
| S-EPMC8201834 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Abstract There is no denying the impact that the coronravirus disease (COVID?19) outbreak has had on many aspects of our lives. This article looks at the potential impact of COVID?19 on student learning as schools abruptly morphed into virtual learning environments using data from several instructional, practice, and assessment solutions offered by Renaissance. First, three hypothetical learning scenarios are considered using normative data from Star assessments to explore the potential impact on reading and math test performace. Next, data on Focus Skills are used to highlight which grades may have missed the most foundational math and reading content if instruction was stopped or reduced. Last, data from two of Renaissance's practice tools are used to evaluate whether students were practicing key skills following school closures. The article concludes that academic decline will likely occur but may be tempered by the increased use of practice tools; effects may look different for math and reading; and may impact grades and schools differently. As such, schools may need to leverage decision?making frameworks, such as the Multi?tiered Systems of Support/Response?to?Intervention (MTSS/RTI) framework, more than ever to identify needs and target instruction where it matters most when school begins in fall 2020.
| S-EPMC7405060 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The 2020 Covid-19 pandemic provides an empirical testing ground for assessing the impact of critical events on societal transitions. Such events are typically seen as exogenous to the transition process, an assumption which is investigated in this paper. Using a qualitative system dynamics modelling approach we conceptualize transition pathways as sets of interacting sequences of events. This enables the analysis of event sequences that constitute the evolving pandemic as impacting on those pathways. We apply this approach to the provision of (auto)mobility and food in the UK. This shows the way in which the pandemic has had a differential effect on ongoing transitions in both systems, sometimes slowing them down, and sometimes accelerating them. In addition, it reveals how it has established new transition pathways. The empirical work further shows how qualitative modelling with system dynamics facilitates an explicit and systematic comparative analysis of transition case studies.
| S-EPMC8565922 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Due to the global COVID-19 pandemic, covering the mouth region with a face mask became pervasive in many regions of the world, potentially impacting how people communicate with and around children. To explore the characteristics of this masked communication, we asked nursery school educators, who have been at the forefront of daily masked interaction with children, about their perception of daily communicative interactions while wearing a mask in an online survey. We collected data from French and Japanese nursery school educators to gain an understanding of commonalities and differences in communicative behavior with face masks given documented cultural differences in pre-pandemic mask wearing habits, face scanning patterns, and communicative behavior. Participants (177 French and 138 Japanese educators) reported a perceived change in their own communicative behavior while wearing a mask, with decreases in language quantity and increases in language quality and non-verbal cues. Comparable changes in their team members' and children's communicative behaviors were also reported. Moreover, our results suggest that these changes in educators' communicative behaviors are linked to their attitudes toward mask wearing and their potential difficulty in communicating following its use. These findings shed light on the impact of pandemic-induced mask wearing on children's daily communicative environment.
| S-EPMC9677818 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Face masks are now seen as a key tool in the world's recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. However, during the early stages of the outbreak, face mask use in the United Kingdom (UK) was significantly lower than that of countries equally impacted by the virus. We were interested to explore whether social cognitions played a role in levels of mask wearing. A cross-sectional online survey of UK adults (n=908) was conducted in July 2020. Estimated face mask use and thoughts about wearing face masks were assessed using measures developed for this study. Participants also answered questions about their general mood, social anxiety and basic demographic data. Multiple regression was used to examine factors associated with mask wearing. Participants' estimated mask wearing was low when in public spaces, such as the park (17%) or walking on the high street (36%). However, broadly fitting with UK guidance at the time, rates were considerably higher when in situations of closer proximity to others, such as on public transport (94%), in a shop or café (62%), when speaking to somebody in an enclosed public space (67%) or in a busy area when social distancing was not possible (79%). When looking at estimated mask wearing when in proximity to others, positive social cognitions (e.g., I'll look confident and competent wearing a mask) were associated with more wearing, whereas negative social cognitions (e.g., I'll look anxious, I'll look foolish) were associated with less wearing. These results remained after controlling for factors that have indicated increased risk from COVID-19 (age, gender, ethnicity, presence of a health condition or pregnancy), belief about the health benefit for others and levels of depression and social anxiety. The largest predictors of mask wearing were the amount of people believed wearing a mask would keep others safe and the presence of an underlying health condition. The study findings indicate that future public health campaigns would benefit from a focus on strengthening beliefs about the protective benefits of masks, but also promoting positive social messages about wearing in public (e.g., mask wearing means you are confident and competent).
| S-EPMC8569128 | biostudies-literature
Project description:BackgroundNovel coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) causes an immense disease burden. Although public health countermeasures effectively controlled the epidemic in China, non-pharmaceutical interventions can neither be maintained indefinitely nor conveniently implemented globally. Vaccination is mainly used to prevent COVID-19, and most current antiviral treatment evaluations focus on clinical efficacy. Therefore, we conducted population-based simulations to assess antiviral treatment effectiveness among different age groups based on its clinical efficacy.MethodsWe collected COVID-19 data of Wuhan City from published literature and established a database (from 2 December 2019 to 16 March 2020). We developed an age-specific model to evaluate the effectiveness of antiviral treatment in patients with COVID-19. Efficacy was divided into three types: (1) viral activity reduction, reflected as transmission rate decrease [reduction was set as v (0-0.8) to simulate hypothetical antiviral treatments]; (2) reduction in the duration time from symptom onset to patient recovery/removal, reflected as a 1/γ decrease (reduction was set as 1-3 days to simulate hypothetical or real-life antiviral treatments, and the time of asymptomatic was reduced by the same proportion); (3) fatality rate reduction in severely ill patients (fc) [reduction (z) was set as 0.3 to simulate real-life antiviral treatments]. The population was divided into four age groups (groups 1, 2, 3 and 4), which included those aged ≤ 14; 15-44; 45-64; and ≥ 65 years, respectively. Evaluation indices were based on outbreak duration, cumulative number of cases, total attack rate (TAR), peak date, number of peak cases, and case fatality rate (f).ResultsComparing the simulation results of combination and single medication therapy s, all four age groups showed better results with combination medication. When 1/γ = 2 and v = 0.4, age group 2 had the highest TAR reduction rate (98.48%, 56.01-0.85%). When 1/γ = 2, z = 0.3, and v = 0.1, age group 1 had the highest reduction rate of f (83.08%, 0.71-0.12%).ConclusionsAntiviral treatments are more effective in COVID-19 transmission control than in mortality reduction. Overall, antiviral treatments were more effective in younger age groups, while older age groups showed higher COVID-19 prevalence and mortality. Therefore, physicians should pay more attention to prevention of viral spread and patients deaths when providing antiviral treatments to patients of older age groups.
| S-EPMC8054260 | biostudies-literature