Evaluating alternative hypotheses to explain the downward trend in the indices of the COVID-19 pandemic death rate.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In the ongoing Covid-19 pandemic, in the global data on the case fatality ratio (CFR) and other indices reflecting death rate, there is a consistent downward trend from mid-April to mid-November. The downward trend can be an illusion caused by biases and limitations of data or it could faithfully reflect a declining death rate. A variety of explanations for this trend are possible, but a systematic analysis of the testable predictions of the alternative hypotheses has not yet been attempted.

Methodology

We state six testable alternative hypotheses, analyze their testable predictions using public domain data and evaluate their relative contributions to the downward trend.

Results

We show that a decline in the death rate is real; changing age structure of the

SUBMITTER: Shinde S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8063871 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature