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Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer.

ABSTRACT: Background: Estimation of life expectancy in older patients is relevant to select the best treatment strategy. We aimed to develop and validate a score to predict early mortality in older patients with cancer. Patients and Methods: A total of 749 patients over 70 years starting new chemotherapy regimens were prospectively included. A prechemotherapy assessment that included sociodemographic variables, tumor/treatment variables, and geriatric assessment variables was performed. Association between these factors and early death was examined using multivariable logistic regression. Score points were assigned to each risk factor. External validation was performed on an independent cohort. Results: In the training cohort, the independent predictors of 6-month mortality were metastatic stage (OR 4.8, 95% CI [2.4-9.6]), ECOG-PS 2 (OR 2.3, 95% CI [1.1-5.2]), ADL ≤ 5 (OR 1.7, 95% CI [1.1-3.5]), serum albumin levels ≤ 3.5 g/dL (OR 3.4, 95% CI [1.7-6.6]), BMI < 23 kg/m2 (OR 2.5, 95% CI [1.3-4.9]), and hemoglobin levels < 11 g/dL (OR 2.4, 95% CI (1.2-4.7)). With these results, we built a prognostic score. The area under the ROC curve was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.73 to 0.84), and in the validation set, it was 0.73 (95% CI: 0.67-0.79). Conclusions: This simple and highly accurate tool can help physicians making decisions in elderly patients with cancer who are planned to initiate chemotherapy treatment.

SUBMITTER: Feliu J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8070509 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer.

Feliu Jaime J Pinto Alvaro A Basterretxea Laura L López-San Vicente Borja B Paredero Irene I Llabrés Elisenda E Jiménez-Munárriz Beatriz B Antonio-Rebollo Maite M Losada Beatriz B Espinosa Enrique E Gironés Regina R Custodio Ana Belén AB Muñoz María Del Mar MDM Díaz-Almirón Mariana M Gómez-Mediavilla Jenifer J Torregrosa María Dolores MD Soler Gema G Cruz Patricia P Higuera Oliver O González-Montalvo Juan Ignacio JI Molina-Garrido María José MJ

Journal of clinical medicine 20210410 8

<i>Background:</i> Estimation of life expectancy in older patients is relevant to select the best treatment strategy. We aimed to develop and validate a score to predict early mortality in older patients with cancer. <i>Patients and Methods:</i> A total of 749 patients over 70 years starting new chemotherapy regimens were prospectively included. A prechemotherapy assessment that included sociodemographic variables, tumor/treatment variables, and geriatric assessment variables was performed. Asso ...[more]

PMID: 33920250

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Project description:Background: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has found the whole world unprepared for its correct management. Italy was the first European country to experience the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus at the end of February 2020. As a result of hospital overcrowding, the quality of care delivered was not always optimal. A substantial number of patients admitted to non-ICU units could have been treated at home. It would have been extremely useful to have a score that, based on personal and clinical characteristics and simple blood tests, could have predicted with sufficient reliability the probability that a patient had or did not have a disease that could have led to their death. This study aims to develop a scoring system to identify which patients with COVID-19 are at high mortality risk upon hospital admission, to expedite and enhance clinical decision making. Methods: A retrospective analysis was performed to develop a multivariable prognostic prediction model. Results: Derivation and external validation cohorts were obtained from two Italian University Hospital databases, including 388 (10.31% deceased) and 1357 (7.68% deceased) patients with confirmed COVID-19, respectively. A multivariable logistic model was used to select seven variables associated with in-hospital death (age, baseline oxygen saturation, hemoglobin value, white blood cell count, percentage of neutrophils, platelet count, and creatinine value). Calibration and discrimination were satisfactory with a cumulative AUC for prediction mortality of 0.924 (95% CI: 0.893-0.944) in derivation cohorts and 0.808 (95% CI: 0.886-0.828) in external validation cohorts. The risk score obtained was compared with the ISARIC 4C Mortality Score, and with all the other most important scores considered so far, to evaluate the risk of death of patients with COVID-19. It performed better than all the above scores to evaluate the predictability of dying. Its sensitivity, specificity, and AUC were higher than the other COVID-19 scoring systems when the latter were calculated for the 388 patients in our derivation cohort. Conclusions: In conclusion, the CZ-COVID-19 Score may help all physicians by identifying those COVID-19 patients who require more attention to provide better therapeutic regimens or, on the contrary, by identifying those patients for whom hospitalization is not necessary and who could therefore be sent home without overcrowding healthcare facilities. We developed and validated a new risk score based on seven variables for upon-hospital admission of COVID-19 patients. It is very simple to calculate and performs better than all the other similar scores to evaluate the predictability of dying.

Dataset Information

Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer.

Publications

Development and Validation of an Early Mortality Risk Score for Older Patients Treated with Chemotherapy for Cancer.

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