Analysis of the potential impact of durability, timing, and transmission blocking of COVID-19 vaccine on morbidity and mortality.

ABSTRACT:

Background

COVID-19 vaccines have been approved and made available. While questions of vaccine allocation strategies have received significant attention, important questions remain regarding the potential impact of the vaccine given uncertainties regarding efficacy against transmission, availability, timing, and durability.

Methods

We adapted a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR) model to examine the potential impact on hospitalization and mortality assuming increasing rates of vaccine efficacy, coverage, and administration. We also evaluated the uncertainty of the vaccine to prevent infectiousness as well as the impact on outcomes based on the timing of distribution and the potential effects of waning immunity.

Findings

Increased vaccine efficacy against

SUBMITTER: Haghpanah F 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8072137 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature