Assessing intrastate shipments from interstate data and expert opinion.

ABSTRACT: Live animal shipments are a potential route for transmitting animal diseases between holdings and are crucial when modelling spread of infectious diseases. Yet, complete contact networks are not available in all countries, including the USA. Here, we considered a 10% sample of Interstate Certificate of Veterinary Inspections from 1 year (2009). We focused on distance dependence in contacts and investigated how different functional forms affect estimates of unobserved intrastate shipments. To further enhance our predictions, we included responses from an expert elicitation survey about the proportion of shipments moving intrastate. We used hierarchical Bayesian modelling to estimate parameters describing the kernel and effects of expert data. We considered three functional forms of spatial

SUBMITTER: Brommesson P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8074939 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature