Generative models of network dynamics provide insight into the effects of trade on endemic livestock disease.

ABSTRACT: We develop and apply analytically tractable generative models of livestock movements at national scale. These go beyond current models through mechanistic modelling of heterogeneous trade partnership network dynamics and the trade events that occur on them. Linking resulting animal movements to disease transmission between farms yields analytical expressions for the basic reproduction number R ₀. We show how these novel modelling tools enable systems approaches to disease control, using R ₀ to explore impacts of changes in trading practices on between-farm prevalence levels. Using the Scottish cattle trade network as a case study, we show our approach captures critical complexities of real-world trade networks at the national scale for a broad range of e

SUBMITTER: Knight MA 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8074963 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature