Estimating the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in France using a model with memory.

ABSTRACT: In this paper, we use a deterministic epidemic model with memory to estimate the state of the COVID-19 epidemic in France, from early March until mid-December 2020. Our model is in the SEIR class, which means that when a susceptible individual (S) becomes infected, he/she is first exposed (E), i.e. not yet contagious. Then he/she becomes infectious (I) for a certain length of time, during which he/she may infect susceptible individuals around him/her, and finally becomes removed (R), that is, either immune or dead. The specificity of our model is that it assumes a very general probability distribution for the pair of exposed and infectious periods. The law of large numbers limit of such a model is a model with memory (the future evolution of the model depends not only upon its present stat

SUBMITTER: Forien R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8074964 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature