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Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.

ABSTRACT: The Future Elderly Model (FEM) is a microsimulation model designed to forecast health status, longevity, and a variety of economic outcomes. Compared to traditional actuarial models, microsimulation models provide greater opportunities for policy forecasting and richer detail, but they typically build upon smaller samples of data that may mitigate forecasting accuracy. We perform validation analyses of the FEM's mortality and quality of life forecasts using a version of the FEM estimated exclusively on early waves of data from the Health and Retirement Study. First, we compare FEM mortality and longevity projections to the actual mortality and longevity experience observed over the same period of time. We also compare the FEM results to actuarial forecasts of mortality and longevity during the same time. We find that FEM projections are generally in line with observed mortality rates and closely match longevity. Then, we assess the FEM's performance at predicting quality of life and longitudinal outcomes, two features missing from traditional actuarial models. Our analysis suggests the FEM performs at least as well as actuarial forecasts of mortality, while providing policy simulation features that are not available in actuarial models.

SUBMITTER: Ermini Leaf D

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8075077 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Nov

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.

Ermini Leaf Duncan D Tysinger Bryan B Goldman Dana P DP Lakdawalla Darius N DN

Health economics 20201007

The Future Elderly Model (FEM) is a microsimulation model designed to forecast health status, longevity, and a variety of economic outcomes. Compared to traditional actuarial models, microsimulation models provide greater opportunities for policy forecasting and richer detail, but they typically build upon smaller samples of data that may mitigate forecasting accuracy. We perform validation analyses of the FEM's mortality and quality of life forecasts using a version of the FEM estimated exclusi ...[more]

PMID: 33026140

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Project description:Background:Hip fractures of elderly patients are a public health problem worldwide, mostly lying in bed for a long time; therefore, the importance of life quality in such patients is an issue beyond question. Orem's self-care model is a nursing pattern which is introduced with the purpose of improving the self-care ability of individuals, especially the patients suffering from diseases with limits on activity. Objective:The aim of this study was to determine the effects of Orem's self-care program on life quality of senile patients with hip fractures. Methods:A randomized clinical trial study was conducted on 130 eligible old patients suffering from hip fractures who were selected using easy sampling methods and allocated randomly into two groups of experiment and control. The data were collected through validated questionnaires including visual analogue scale (VAS) and Barthel index for them. The experiment group was treated according to Orem's self-care model, and the control group was treated on the basis of the traditional care model. The data of complications including pneumonia, deep venous thrombosis, urinary infection, wound problem, and bedsore were also gathered. Results:As revealed, mean scores of VAS and Barthel index one week after operation in the experiment group were significantly different from the control one (P < 0.05, P ? 0.001). The changes of VAS and Barthel index six weeks postoperatively of the two groups were also statistically significant (P < 0.05, P ? 0.001). Compared with the control group, the difference of complications reduced significantly in the experiment group (P < 0.05). Accordingly, educational intervention according to Orem's self-care model seemed to be effective in promoting self-care ability for these senile patients. Conclusions:According to the obtained results, a self-care program based on Orem's model for elderly patients with hip fractures can improve life quality and reduce perioperative complications significantly. Therefore, it is recommended that this nursing program should be taken into account as a part of treatment measures for these patients.

Project description:BackgroundDegenerative diseases are a major public health concern for the aging population and mesenchymal stem cells (MSCs) have great potential for treating many of these diseases. However, the quantity and quality of MSCs declines with aging, limiting the potential efficacy of autologous MSCs for treating the elderly population.MethodsHuman bone marrow (BM)-derived MSCs from young and elderly donors were obtained and characterized using standard cell surface marker criteria (CD73, CD90, CD105) as recommended by the International Society for Cellular Therapy (ISCT). The elderly MSC population was isolated into four subpopulations based on size and stage-specific embryonic antigen-4 (SSEA-4) expression using fluorescence-activated cell sorting (FACS), and subpopulations were compared to the unfractionated young and elderly MSCs using assays that evaluate MSC proliferation, quality, morphology, intracellular reactive oxygen species, β-galactosidase expression, and adenosine triphosphate (ATP) content.ResultsThe ISCT-recommended cell surface markers failed to detect any differences between young and elderly MSCs. Here, we report that elderly MSCs were larger in size and displayed substantially higher concentrations of intracellular reactive oxygen species and β-galactosidase expression and lower amounts of ATP and SSEA-4 expression. Based on these findings, cell size and SSEA-4 expression were used to separate the elderly MSCs into four subpopulations by FACS. The original populations (young and elderly MSCs), as well as the four subpopulations, were then characterized before and after culture on tissue culture plastic and BM-derived extracellular matrix (BM-ECM). The small SSEA-4-positive subpopulation representing ~ 8% of the original elderly MSC population exhibited a "youthful" phenotype that was similar to that of young MSCs. The biological activity of this elderly subpopulation was inhibited by senescence-associated factors produced by the unfractionated parent population. After these "youthful" cells were isolated and expanded (three passages) on a "young microenvironment" (i.e., BM-ECM produced by BM cells from young donors), the number of cells increased ≈ 17,000-fold to 3 × 109 cells and retained their "youthful" phenotype.ConclusionsThese results suggest that it is feasible to obtain large numbers of high-quality autologous MSCs from the elderly population and establish personal stem cell banks that will allow serial infusions of "rejuvenated" MSCs for treating age-related diseases.

Project description:ObjectivesTo use real-world data to develop a flexible generic decision model to predict cost, life expectancy, and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) for follicular lymphoma (FL) in the general patient population.MethodsAll patients newly diagnosed with FL in the UK's population-based Haematological Malignancy Research Network (www.hmrn.org) between 2004 and 2011 were followed until 2015 (N = 740). Treatment pathways, QALYs, and costs were incorporated into a discrete event simulation to reflect patient heterogeneity, including age and disease management. Two scenario analyses, based on the latest National Institute for Health and Clinical Excellence (NICE) guidelines (rituximab induction therapy for newly diagnosed asymptomatic patients and rituximab maintenance therapy for patients between treatments), were conducted and their economic impacts were compared to current practice.ResultsIncidence-based analysis revealed expected average lifetime costs ranging from £6,165 [US$7,709] to £63,864 [US$79,862] per patient, and average life expectancy from 75 days to 17.56 years. Prevalence-based analysis estimated average annual treatment costs of £60-65 million [US$75-80 million], accounting for approximately 10% of the United Kingdom's annual National Health Service budget for hematological cancers as a whole. Assuming that treatment effects reported in trials are applicable to all patient groups, scenario analyses for two recent NICE guidelines demonstrated potential annual cost savings for the United Kingdom that ranged with uptake frequency from £0.6 million to £11 million [US$0.75-2.75 million].ConclusionsCosts, survival, and QALYs associated with FL vary markedly with patient characteristics and disease management. Allowing the production of more realistic outcomes across the patient population as a whole, our model addresses this heterogeneity and is a useful tool with which to evaluate new technologies/treatments to support healthcare decision makers.

Dataset Information

Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.

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Predicting quantity and quality of life with the Future Elderly Model.

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