Construction of a demand and capacity model for intensive care and hospital ward beds, and mortality from COVID-19.

ABSTRACT:

Background

This paper describes a model for estimating COVID-19 related excess deaths that are a direct consequence of insufficient hospital ward bed and intensive care unit (ICU) capacity.

Methods

Compartmental models were used to estimate deaths under different combinations of ICU and ward care required and received in England up to late April 2021. Model parameters were sourced from publicly available government information and organisations collating COVID-19 data. A sub-model was used to estimate the mortality scalars that represent increased mortality due to insufficient ICU or general ward bed capacity. Three illustrative scenarios for admissions numbers, 'Optimistic', 'Middling' and 'Pessimistic', were modelled and compared with the subsequent observations to the 3rd

SUBMITTER: Martin C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8076441 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Apr

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature