The estimated impact of decreased childhood vaccination due to COVID-19 using a dynamic transmission model of mumps in Japan.

ABSTRACT: The exact impact of the decline in childhood vaccination coverage during COVID-19 outbreak has not been estimated for any vaccine-preventable diseases. Our objective was to evaluate the impact of decreased mumps vaccination due to COVID-19 on the disease burden of mumps in Japan. Using a previously validated dynamic transmission model of mumps infection in Japan, the incidence rate of mumps over the next 30 y since July 2020 was estimated. The estimated average incidences were 269.1, 302.0, and 455.4/100,000 person-years in rapid recovery, slow recovery, and permanent decline scenarios. Compared with the rapid recovery scenario, the incremental number of mumps cases, total costs, and QALYs loss over the next 30 y were 6.53 million cases, 2.63 billion USD, and 49,246 for the permanent decli

SUBMITTER: Kitano T 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8078681 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature