Modelling intensive care unit capacity under different epidemiological scenarios of the COVID-19 pandemic in three Western European countries.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has placed enormous strain on intensive care units (ICUs) in Europe. Ensuring access to care, irrespective of COVID-19 status, in winter 2020-2021 is essential.

Methods

An integrated model of hospital capacity planning and epidemiological projections of COVID-19 patients is used to estimate the demand for and resultant spare capacity of ICU beds, staff and ventilators under different epidemic scenarios in France, Germany and Italy across the 2020-2021 winter period. The effect of implementing lockdowns triggered by different numbers of COVID-19 patients in ICUs under varying levels of effectiveness is examined, using a 'dual-demand' (COVID-19 and non-COVID-19) patient model.

Results

Without sufficient mitigat

SUBMITTER: McCabe R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8083295 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jul

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature