Cross-scale dynamics and the evolutionary emergence of infectious diseases.

ABSTRACT: When emerging pathogens encounter new host species for which they are poorly adapted, they must evolve to escape extinction. Pathogens experience selection on traits at multiple scales, including replication rates within host individuals and transmissibility between hosts. We analyze a stochastic model linking pathogen growth and competition within individuals to transmission between individuals. Our analysis reveals a new factor, the cross-scale reproductive number of a mutant virion, that quantifies how quickly mutant strains increase in frequency when they initially appear in the infected host population. This cross-scale reproductive number combines with viral mutation rates, single-strain reproductive numbers, and transmission bottleneck width to determine the likelihood of evolutiona

SUBMITTER: Schreiber SJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8087961 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jan

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature