Modelling COVID-19 contagion: risk assessment and targeted mitigation policies.

ABSTRACT: We use a spatial epidemic model with demographic and geographical heterogeneity to study the regional dynamics of COVID-19 across 133 regions in England. Our model emphasizes the role of variability of regional outcomes and heterogeneity across age groups and geographical locations, and provides a framework for assessing the impact of policies targeted towards subpopulations or regions. We define a concept of efficiency for comparative analysis of epidemic control policies and show targeted mitigation policies based on local monitoring to be more efficient than country-level or non-targeted measures. In particular, our results emphasize the importance of shielding vulnerable subpopulations and show that targeted policies based on local monitoring can considerably lower fatality forecasts a

SUBMITTER: Cont R 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8101016 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature