Projecting a second wave of COVID-19 in Japan with variable interventions in high-risk settings.

ABSTRACT: An initial set of interventions, including the closure of host and hostess clubs and voluntary limitation of non-household contact, probably greatly contributed to reducing the disease incidence of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in Japan, but this approach must eventually be replaced by a more sustainable strategy. To characterize such a possible exit strategy from the restrictive guidelines, we quantified the next-generation matrix, accounting for high- and low-risk transmission settings. This matrix was used to project the future incidence in Tokyo and Osaka after the state of emergency is lifted, presenting multiple 'post-emergency' scenarios with different levels of restriction. The effective reproduction numbers (R) for the increasing phase, the transition phase and the state-o

SUBMITTER: Jung SM 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8101538 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Mar

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature