Dataset Information

Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.

ABSTRACT:

Background

There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures.

Methods

Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 values comparable, and by country/region to explore whether R0 estimates differed across the world. The average R0 values were pooled using a random-effects model.

Results

We identified 185 unique articles, yielding 43 articles for analysis. The selected studies covered 5 countries from Asia, 5 countries from Europe, 12 countries from Africa, and 1 from North America, South America, and Australia each. Exponential growth rate model was most favored by researchers. The pooled global R0 was 4.08 (95% CI, 3.09-5.39). The R0 estimates for new and shifting epicenters were comparable or even higher than that for the original epicenter Wuhan, China.

Conclusions

The high R0 values suggest that an extraordinary combination of control measures is needed for halting COVID-19.

SUBMITTER: Yu CJ

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8104145 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.

Yu Cheng-Jun CJ Wang Zi-Xiao ZX Xu Yue Y Hu Ming-Xia MX Chen Kai K Qin Gang G

Medicine 20210501 18

<h4>Background</h4>There are large knowledge gaps regarding how transmission of 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) occurred in different settings across the world. This study aims to summarize basic reproduction number (R0) data and provide clues for designing prevention and control measures.<h4>Methods</h4>Several databases and preprint platforms were retrieved for literature reporting R0 values of COVID-19. The analysis was stratified by the prespecified modeling method to make the R0 v ...[more]

PMID: 33950996

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Project description:BackgroundThe coronavirus (SARS-COV-2) is now a global concern because of its higher transmission capacity and associated adverse consequences including death. The reproductive number of coronavirus provides an estimate of the possible extent of the transmission. This study aims to provide a summary reproductive number of coronavirus based on available global level evidence.MethodsA total of three databases were searched on September 15, 2020: PubMed, Web of Science, and Science Direct. The searches were conducted using a pre-specified search strategy to record studies reported the reproductive number of coronavirus from its inception in December 2019. It includes keywords of coronavirus and its reproductive number, which were combined using the Boolean operators (AND, OR). Based on the included studies, we estimated a summary reproductive number by using the meta-analysis. We used narrative synthesis to explain the results of the studies where the reproductive number was reported, however, were not possible to include in the meta-analysis because of the lack of data (mostly due to confidence interval was not reported).ResultsTotal of 42 studies included in this review whereas 29 of them were included in the meta-analysis. The estimated summary reproductive number was 2.87 (95% CI, 2.39-3.44). We found evidence of very high heterogeneity (99.5%) of the reproductive number reported in the included studies. Our sub-group analysis was found the significant variations of reproductive number across the country for which it was estimated, method and model that were used to estimate the reproductive number, number of case that was considered to estimate the reproductive number, and the type of reproductive number that was estimated. The highest reproductive number was reported for the Diamond Princess Cruise Ship in Japan (14.8). In the country-level, the higher reproductive number was reported for France (R, 6.32, 95% CI, 5.72-6.99) following Germany (R, 6.07, 95% CI, 5.51-6.69) and Spain (R, 3.56, 95% CI, 1.62-7.82). The higher reproductive number was reported if it was estimated by using the Markov Chain Monte Carlo method (MCMC) method and the Epidemic curve model. We also reported significant heterogeneity of the type of reproductive number- a high-value reported if it was the time-dependent reproductive number.ConclusionThe estimated summary reproductive number indicates an exponential increase of coronavirus infection in the coming days. Comprehensive policies and programs are important to reduce new infections as well as the associated adverse consequences including death.

Project description:The 2019-2020 pandemic of atypical pneumonia (COVID-19) caused by the virus SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally and has the potential to infect large numbers of people in every country. Estimating the country-specific basic reproductive ratio is a vital first step in public-health planning. The basic reproductive ratio (R0) is determined by both the nature of pathogen and the network of human contacts through which the disease can spread, which is itself dependent on population age structure and household composition. Here we introduce a transmission model combining age-stratified contact frequencies with age-dependent susceptibility, probability of clinical symptoms, and transmission from asymptomatic (or mild) cases, which we use to estimate the country-specific basic reproductive ratio of COVID-19 for 152 countries. Using early outbreak data from China and a synthetic contact matrix, we estimate an age-stratified transmission structure which can then be extrapolated to 151 other countries for which synthetic contact matrices also exist. This defines a set of country-specific transmission structures from which we can calculate the basic reproductive ratio for each country. Our predicted R0 is critically sensitive to the intensity of transmission from asymptomatic cases; with low asymptomatic transmission the highest values are predicted across Eastern Europe and Japan and the lowest across Africa, Central America and South-Western Asia. This pattern is largely driven by the ratio of children to older adults in each country and the observed propensity of clinical cases in the elderly. If asymptomatic cases have comparable transmission to detected cases, the pattern is reversed. Our results demonstrate the importance of age-specific heterogeneities going beyond contact structure to the spread of COVID-19. These heterogeneities give COVID-19 the capacity to spread particularly quickly in countries with older populations, and that intensive control measures are likely to be necessary to impede its progress in these countries.

Dataset Information

Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusions

Publications

Assessment of basic reproductive number for COVID-19 at global level: A meta-analysis.

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