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Semi-parametric empirical Bayes factor for genome-wide association studies.

ABSTRACT: Bayes factor analysis has the attractive property of accommodating the risks of both false negatives and false positives when identifying susceptibility gene variants in genome-wide association studies (GWASs). For a particular SNP, the critical aspect of this analysis is that it incorporates the probability of obtaining the observed value of a statistic on disease association under the alternative hypotheses of non-null association. An approximate Bayes factor (ABF) was proposed by Wakefield (Genetic Epidemiology 2009;33:79-86) based on a normal prior for the underlying effect-size distribution. However, misspecification of the prior can lead to failure in incorporating the probability under the alternative hypothesis. In this paper, we propose a semi-parametric, empirical Bayes factor (SP-EBF) based on a nonparametric effect-size distribution estimated from the data. Analysis of several GWAS datasets revealed the presence of substantial numbers of SNPs with small effect sizes, and the SP-EBF attributed much greater significance to such SNPs than the ABF. Overall, the SP-EBF incorporates an effect-size distribution that is estimated from the data, and it has the potential to improve the accuracy of Bayes factor analysis in GWASs.

SUBMITTER: Morisawa J

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8110551 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Semi-parametric empirical Bayes factor for genome-wide association studies.

Morisawa Junji J Otani Takahiro T Nishino Jo J Emoto Ryo R Takahashi Kunihiko K Matsui Shigeyuki S

European journal of human genetics : EJHG 20210125 5

Bayes factor analysis has the attractive property of accommodating the risks of both false negatives and false positives when identifying susceptibility gene variants in genome-wide association studies (GWASs). For a particular SNP, the critical aspect of this analysis is that it incorporates the probability of obtaining the observed value of a statistic on disease association under the alternative hypotheses of non-null association. An approximate Bayes factor (ABF) was proposed by Wakefield (G ...[more]

PMID: 33495595

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Project description:Characterizing the distribution of effects from genome-wide genotyping data is crucial for understanding important aspects of the genetic architecture of complex traits, such as number or proportion of non-null loci, average proportion of phenotypic variance explained per non-null effect, power for discovery, and polygenic risk prediction. To this end, previous work has used effect-size models based on various distributions, including the normal and normal mixture distributions, among others. In this paper we propose a scale mixture of two normals model for effect size distributions of genome-wide association study (GWAS) test statistics. Test statistics corresponding to null associations are modeled as random draws from a normal distribution with zero mean; test statistics corresponding to non-null associations are also modeled as normal with zero mean, but with larger variance. The model is fit via minimizing discrepancies between the parametric mixture model and resampling-based nonparametric estimates of replication effect sizes and variances. We describe in detail the implications of this model for estimation of the non-null proportion, the probability of replication in de novo samples, the local false discovery rate, and power for discovery of a specified proportion of phenotypic variance explained from additive effects of loci surpassing a given significance threshold. We also examine the crucial issue of the impact of linkage disequilibrium (LD) on effect sizes and parameter estimates, both analytically and in simulations. We apply this approach to meta-analysis test statistics from two large GWAS, one for Crohn's disease (CD) and the other for schizophrenia (SZ). A scale mixture of two normals distribution provides an excellent fit to the SZ nonparametric replication effect size estimates. While capturing the general behavior of the data, this mixture model underestimates the tails of the CD effect size distribution. We discuss the implications of pervasive small but replicating effects in CD and SZ on genomic control and power. Finally, we conclude that, despite having very similar estimates of variance explained by genotyped SNPs, CD and SZ have a broadly dissimilar genetic architecture, due to differing mean effect size and proportion of non-null loci.

Dataset Information

Semi-parametric empirical Bayes factor for genome-wide association studies.

Publications

Semi-parametric empirical Bayes factor for genome-wide association studies.

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