Monthly pork price forecasting method based on Census X12-GM(1,1) combination model.

ABSTRACT:

Background

In recent years, the price of pork in China continues to fluctuate at a high level. The forecast of pork price becomes more important. Single prediction models are often used for this work, but they are not accurate enough. This paper proposes a new method based on Census X12-GM(1,1) combination model.

Methods

Monthly pork price data from January 2014 to December 2020 were obtained from the State Statistics Bureau(Mainland China). Census X12 model was adopted to get the long-term trend factor, business cycle change factor and seasonal factor of pork price data before September 2020. GM (1,1) model was used to fit and predict the long-term trend factor and business cycle change factor. The fitting and forecasting values of GM(1,1) were multiplied by the seasonal fa

SUBMITTER: Wang C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8112654 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature