The epidemicity index of recurrent SARS-CoV-2 infections.

ABSTRACT: Several indices can predict the long-term fate of emerging infectious diseases and the effect of their containment measures, including a variety of reproduction numbers (e.g. [Formula: see text]). Other indices evaluate the potential for transient increases of epidemics eventually doomed to disappearance, based on generalized reactivity analysis. They identify conditions for perturbations to a stable disease-free equilibrium ([Formula: see text]) to grow, possibly causing significant damage. Here, we introduce the epidemicity index e₀, a threshold-type indicator: if e₀ > 0, initial foci may cause infection peaks even if [Formula: see text]. Therefore, effective containment measures should achieve a negative epidemicity index. We use spatially explicit models to rank c

SUBMITTER: Mari L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8115165 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature