Forecasting the SARS COVID-19 pandemic and critical care resources threshold in the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries: population analysis of aggregate data.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To generate cross-national forecasts of COVID-19 trajectories and quantify the associated impact on essential critical care resources for disease management in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries.

Design

Population-level aggregate analysis.

Setting

Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia.

Methods

We applied an extended time-dependent SEICRD compartmental model to predict the flow of people between six states, susceptible-exposed-infected-critical-recovery-death, accounting for community mitigation strategies and the latent period between exposure and infected and contagious states. Then, we used the WHO Adaptt Surge Planning Tool to predict intensive care unit (ICU) and human resources capacity based on predicted

SUBMITTER: Al-Aamri AK 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8117473 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature