Potential changes in the connectivity of marine protected areas driven by extreme ocean warming.

ABSTRACT: Projected future climate scenarios anticipate a warmer tropical ocean and changes in surface currents that will likely influence the survival of marine organisms and the connectivity of marine protected areas (MPAs) networks. We simulated the regional effects of climate change on the demographic connectivity of parrotfishes in nine MPAs in the South Atlantic through downscaling of the HadGEM2-ES Earth System Model running the RCP 8.5 greenhouse gas trajectory. Results indicate a tropicalization scenario over the tropical southwest Atlantic following an increase of sea surface temperature (SST) between 1.8 and 4.5 °C and changes in mean surface currents between - 0.6 to 0.5 m s^-1 relative to present conditions. High mortality rates will reduce demographic connectivity and increas

SUBMITTER: Lima LS 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8121921 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature