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Interacting regional policies in containing a disease.

ABSTRACT: Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections is locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments-such as cities, counties, states, and countries-act with minimal coordination across borders. We show that a regional quarantine policy's effectiveness depends on whether 1) the network of interactions satisfies a growth balance condition, 2) infections have a short delay in detection, and 3) the government has control over and knowledge of the necessary parts of the network (no leakage of behaviors). As these conditions generally fail to be satisfied, especially when interactions cross borders, we show that substantial improvements are possible if governments are outward looking and proactive: triggering quarantines in reaction to neighbors' infection rates, in some cases even before infections are detected internally. We also show that even a few lax governments-those that wait for nontrivial internal infection rates before quarantining-impose substantial costs on the whole system. Our results illustrate the importance of understanding contagion across policy borders and offer a starting point in designing proactive policies for decentralized jurisdictions.

SUBMITTER: Chandrasekhar AG

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8126865 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Interacting regional policies in containing a disease.

Chandrasekhar Arun G AG Goldsmith-Pinkham Paul P Jackson Matthew O MO Thau Samuel S

Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America 20210501 19

Regional quarantine policies, in which a portion of a population surrounding infections is locked down, are an important tool to contain disease. However, jurisdictional governments-such as cities, counties, states, and countries-act with minimal coordination across borders. We show that a regional quarantine policy's effectiveness depends on whether 1) the network of interactions satisfies a growth balance condition, 2) infections have a short delay in detection, and 3) the government has contr ...[more]

PMID: 33906950

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Project description:Well-being inequalities arising from different healthcare expenditure public policies is currently a hot topic at a national scale, but especially so at a sub-national level because the inequalities in question are among citizens of the same country. Spain is an optimal study area to carry out research on this topic because it is considered to have one of the best health systems in the world, it is one of the top-ranking countries in terms of life expectancy rates (the indicators we use for well-being), and it has a decentralized public health system with significantly different regional healthcare expenditure public policies. Given that the factors involved in the complex direct, indirect, and second-order relationships between well-being and health spending are latent in nature, and that there are more hypotheses than certainties regarding these relationships, we propose a partial least squares structural equation modeling specification to test the research hypotheses and to estimate the corresponding impacts. These constructs are proxied by a set of 26 indicators, for which annual values at a regional scale were used for the period 2005–2018. From the estimation of this model, it can be concluded that mortality, expenditure and resources are the factors that have the greatest impact on well-being. In addition, a cluster analysis of the indicators for the constructs included in this research reveals the existence of three clearly differentiated groups of autonomous communities: the northern part of the country plus Extremadura (characterized by the lowest well-being and the highest mortality rates), Madrid (with the best results in well-being and mortality, the lowest public health expenditure per inhabitant and percentage of pharmaceutical spending, and the highest percentage in specialty care services and medical staff spending), and the rest of the country (south-eastern regions, with similar well-being values to those of the first group but with less health expenditure). Finally, a principal component analysis reveals that “healthiness” and “basic spending” are the optimal factors for mapping well-being and health spending in Spain.

Dataset Information

Interacting regional policies in containing a disease.

Publications

Interacting regional policies in containing a disease.

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