Impact of public health interventions to curb SARS-CoV-2 spread assessed by an evidence-educated Delphi panel and tailored SEIR model.

ABSTRACT:

Aim

To use a Delphi-panel-based assessment of the effectiveness of different non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) in order to retrospectively approximate and to prospectively predict the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic progression via a SEIR model (susceptible, exposed, infectious, removed).

Methods

We applied an evidence-educated Delphi-panel approach to elicit the impact of NPIs on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission rate R₀ in Germany. Effectiveness was defined as the product of efficacy and compliance. A discrete, deterministic SEIR model with time step of 1 day, a latency period of 1.8 days, duration of infectiousness of 5 days, and a share of the total population of 15% assumed to be protected by immunity was developed in order to estimate the impact of selected NPI measures

SUBMITTER: Bruggenjurgen B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8127459 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature