Prediction of hospital bed capacity during the COVID- 19 pandemic.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Prediction of the necessary capacity of beds by ward type (e.g. ICU) is essential for planning purposes during epidemics, such as the COVID- 19 pandemic. The COVID- 19 taskforce within the Ghent University hospital made use of ten-day forecasts on the required number of beds for COVID- 19 patients across different wards.

Methods

The planning tool combined a Poisson model for the number of newly admitted patients on each day with a multistate model for the transitions of admitted patients to the different wards, discharge or death. These models were used to simulate the required capacity of beds by ward type over the next 10 days, along with worst-case and best-case bounds.

Results

Overall, the models resulted in good predictions of the required number of be

SUBMITTER: Deschepper M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8128685 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature