Variable impact of COVID-19 on urgent intervention in Ontario.
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ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: de Mestral C
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8135473 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Variable impact of COVID-19 on urgent intervention in Ontario.
de Mestral C C Gomez D D Sue-Chue-Lam C C Dossa F F Nantais J J Simpson A N AN Urbach D D Austin P C PC Wilton A S AS Baxter N N NN
The British journal of surgery 20210801 8
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Project description:The outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 is thought to have originated in Wuhan, China in late 2019 and has since spread quickly around the world. To date, the virus has infected tens of millions of people worldwide, compelling governments to implement strict policies to counteract community spread. Federal, provincial, and municipal governments have employed various public health policies, including social distancing, mandatory mask wearing, and the closure of schools and businesses. However, the implementation of these policies can be difficult and costly, making it imperative that both policy makers and the citizenry understand their potential benefits and the risks of non-compliance. In this work, a mathematical model is developed to study the impact of social behaviour on the course of the pandemic in the province of Ontario. The approach is based upon a standard SEIRD model with a variable transmission rate that depends on the behaviour of the population. The model parameters, which characterize the disease dynamics, are estimated from Ontario COVID-19 epidemiological data using machine learning techniques. A key result of the model, following from the variable transmission rate, is the prediction of the occurrence of a second wave using the most current infection data and disease-specific traits. The qualitative behaviour of different future transmission-reduction strategies is examined, and the time-varying reproduction number is analyzed using existing epidemiological data and future projections. Importantly, the effective reproduction number, and thus the course of the pandemic, is found to be sensitive to the adherence to public health policies, illustrating the need for vigilance as the economy continues to reopen.
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Project description:BackgroundA number of highly effective COVID-19 vaccines have been developed and approved for mass vaccination. We evaluated the impact of vaccination on COVID-19 outbreak and disease outcomes in Ontario, Canada.MethodsWe used an agent-based transmission model and parameterized it with COVID-19 characteristics, demographics of Ontario, and age-specific clinical outcomes. We implemented a two-dose vaccination program according to tested schedules in clinical trials for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, prioritizing healthcare workers, individuals with comorbidities, and those aged 65 and older. Daily vaccination rate was parameterized based on vaccine administration data. Using estimates of vaccine efficacy, we projected the impact of vaccination on the overall attack rate, hospitalizations, and deaths. We further investigated the effect of increased daily contacts at different stages during vaccination campaigns on outbreak control.ResultsMaintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) with an average of 74% reduction in daily contacts, vaccination with Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines was projected to reduce hospitalizations by 27.3% (95% CrI: 22.3% - 32.4%) and 27.0% (95% CrI: 21.9% - 32.6%), respectively, over a one-year time horizon. The largest benefits of vaccination were observed in preventing deaths with reductions of 31.5% (95% CrI: 22.5% - 39.7%) and 31.9% (95% CrI: 22.0% - 41.4%) for Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna vaccines, respectively, compared to no vaccination. We found that an increase of only 10% in daily contacts at the end of lockdown, when vaccination coverage with only one dose was 6%, would trigger a surge in the outbreak. Early relaxation of population-wide measures could lead to a substantial increase in the number of infections, potentially reaching levels observed during the peak of the second wave in Ontario.ConclusionsVaccination can substantially mitigate ongoing COVID-19 outbreaks. Sustaining population-wide NPIs, to allow for a sufficient increase in population-level immunity through vaccination, is essential to prevent future outbreaks.
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Project description:BackgroundThe novel SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19) pandemic has dramatically altered the delivery of healthcare services, resulting in significant referral pattern changes, delayed presentations, and procedural delays. Our objective was to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on all-cause mortality in patients awaiting commonly performed cardiac procedures.MethodsClinical and administrative data sets were linked to identify all adults referred for: (1) percutaneous coronary intervention; (2) coronary artery bypass grafting; (3) valve surgery; and (4) transcatheter aortic valve implantation, from January 2014 to September 2020 in Ontario, Canada. Piece-wise regression models were used to determine the effect of the COVID-19 pandemic on referrals and procedural volume. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were used to determine the effect of the pandemic on waitlist mortality for the 4 procedures.ResultsWe included 584,341 patients who were first-time referrals for 1 of the 4 procedures, of whom 37,718 (6.4%) were referred during the pandemic. The pandemic period was associated with a significant decline in the number of referrals and procedures completed compared with the prepandemic period. Referral during the pandemic period was a significant predictor for increased all-cause mortality for the percutaneous coronary intervention (hazard ratio, 1.83; 95% confidence interval, 1.47-2.27) and coronary artery bypass grafting (hazard ratio, 1.96; 95% confidence interval, 1.28-3.01), but not for surgical valve or transcatheter aortic valve implantation referrals. Procedural wait times were shorter during the pandemic period compared with the prepandemic period.ConclusionsThere was a significant decrease in referrals and procedures completed for cardiac procedures during the pandemic period. Referral during the pandemic was associated with increased all-cause mortality while awaiting coronary revascularization.
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Project description:BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic has a worldwide impact on all health services, including childhood immunizations. In Canada, there is limited data to quantify and characterize this issue.MethodsWe conducted a descriptive, cross-sectional study by distributing online surveys to physicians across Ontario. The survey included three sections: provider characteristics, impact of COVID-19 on professional practice, and impact of COVID-19 on routine childhood immunization services. Multivariable logistic regression identified factors associated with modification of immunization services.ResultsA total of 475 respondents answered the survey from May 27th to July 3rd 2020, including 189 family physicians and 286 pediatricians. The median proportion of in-person visits reported by physicians before the pandemic was 99% and dropped to 18% during the first wave of the pandemic in Ontario. In total, 175 (44.6%) of the 392 respondents who usually provide vaccination to children acknowledged a negative impact caused by the pandemic on their immunization services, ranging from temporary closure of their practice (n = 18; 4.6%) to postponement of vaccines in certain age groups (n = 103; 26.3%). Pediatricians were more likely to experience a negative impact on their immunization services compared to family physicians (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] = 2.64, 95% CI: 1.48-4.68), as well as early career physicians compared to their more senior colleagues (aOR = 2.69, 95% CI: 1.30-5.56), whereas physicians from suburban settings were less impacted than physicians from urban settings (aOR = 0.62, 95% CI: 0.39-0.99). Some of the proposed solutions to decreased immunization services included assistance in accessing personal protective equipment, dedicated centers or practices for vaccination, universal centralized electronic immunization records and education campaigns for parents.ConclusionsCOVID-19 has caused substantial modifications to pediatric immunization services across Ontario. Strategies to mitigate barriers to immunizations during the pandemic need to be implemented in order to avoid immunity gaps that could lead to an eventual increase in vaccine preventable diseases.
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