Footprints to singularity: A global population model explains late 20th century slow-down and predicts peak within ten years.

ABSTRACT: Projections of future global human population are traditionally made using birth/death trend extrapolations, but these methods ignore limits. Expressing humanity as a K-selected species whose numbers are limited by the global carrying capacity produces a different outlook. Population data for the second millennium up to the year 1970 was fit to a hyper-exponential growth equation, where the rate constant for growth itself grows exponentially due to growth of life-saving technology. The discrepancies between the projected growth and the actual population data since 1970 are accounted for by a decrease in the global carrying capacity due to ecosystem degradation. A system dynamics model that best fits recent population numbers suggests that the global biocapacity may already have been reduce

SUBMITTER: Bystroff C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8136733 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature