COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: estimation of reproduction numbers over 2 months prior to phase 2.

ABSTRACT:

Purpose

Two months after its first COVID-19 case, Italy counted more than 190,000 confirmed positive cases. From the beginning of April 2020, the nationwide lockdown started to show early effects by reducing the total cumulative incidence reached by the epidemic wave. Here we provide the reproduction number estimation both in space and in time from February 24 to April 24, 2020 over 2 months into the epidemic.

Methods

The aim of the present work was to provide a systematical mapping of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics spread to all regions of Italy. To do so, we estimated the basic reproduction number (R ₀ ), by using the maximum likelihood estimation method in the early stage of the epidemic. In addition, we determined time evolution of this par

SUBMITTER: Allieta M 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8137269 | biostudies-literature | 2022

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature