Social Restrictions versus Testing Campaigns in the COVID-19 Crisis: A Predictive Model Based on the Spanish Case.

ABSTRACT: The global COVID-19 spread has forced countries to implement non-pharmacological interventions (NPI) (i.e., mobility restrictions and testing campaigns) to preserve health systems. Spain is one of the most severely impacted countries, both clinically and economically. In an effort to support policy decision-making, we aimed to assess the impacts of different NPI on COVID-19 epidemiology, healthcare costs and Gross Domestic Product (GDP). A modified Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed epidemiological model was created to simulate the pandemic evolution. Its output was used to populate an economic model to quantify healthcare costs and GDP variation through a regression model which correlates NPI and GDP change from 42 countries. Thirteen scenarios combining different NPI were consecutive

SUBMITTER: Candel FJ 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8157049 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature