A data driven change-point epidemic model for assessing the impact of large gathering and subsequent movement control order on COVID-19 spread in Malaysia.

ABSTRACT: The second wave of COVID-19 in Malaysia is largely attributed to a four-day mass gathering held in Sri Petaling from February 27, 2020, which contributed to an exponential rise of COVID-19 cases in the country. Starting from March 18, 2020, the Malaysian government introduced four consecutive phases of a Movement Control Order (MCO) to stem the spread of COVID-19. The MCO was implemented through various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). The reported number of cases reached its peak by the first week of April and then started to reduce, hence proving the effectiveness of the MCO. To gain a quantitative understanding of the effect of MCO on the dynamics of COVID-19, this paper develops a class of mathematical models to capture the disease spread before and after MCO implementation in

SUBMITTER: Dass SC 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8158983 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature