Retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from deaths (REMEDID) in COVID-19: the Spain case study.

ABSTRACT: The number of new daily infections is one of the main parameters to understand the dynamics of an epidemic. During the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, however, such information has been underestimated. Here, we propose a retrospective methodology to estimate daily infections from daily deaths, because those are usually more accurately documented. Given the incubation period, the time from illness onset to death, and the case fatality ratio, the date of death can be estimated from the date of infection. We apply this idea conversely to estimate infections from deaths. This methodology is applied to Spain and its 19 administrative regions. Our results showed that probable daily infections during the first wave were between 35 and 42 times more than those officially documented on 14 March, when th

SUBMITTER: Garcia-Garcia D 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8163852 | biostudies-literature | 2021 May

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature