Dataset Information

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

ABSTRACT:

Background

The COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context.

Methods

The risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 cases and reproductive numbers. The preparedness of a series of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was then assessed by using a density-dependent model. This approach was first illustrated by the Mazu Pilgrimage in Taiwan and validated by using the COVID-19 outbreak in the Shincheonji Church of Jesus (SCJ) religious gathering in South Korea.

Results

Through the strict implementation of 80% NPIs in the Mazu Pilgrimage, the number of secondary cases can be substantially reduced from 1508 (95% CI: 900-2176) to 294 (95% CI: 169-420) with the reproductive number (R) significantly below one (0.54, 95% CI: 0.31-0.78), indicating an effective containment of outbreak. The expected number of secondary COVID-19 cases in the SCJ gathering was estimated as 232 (basic reproductive number (R₀) = 6.02) and 579 (R₀ = 2.50) for the first and second outbreak, respectively, with a total expected cases (833) close to the observed data on high infection of COVID-19 cases (887, R₀ = 3.00).

Conclusion

We provided the evidence on the preparedness of NPIs for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in the context of mass religious gathering by using a density-dependent model.

SUBMITTER: Hsu CY

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8173477 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Publications

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Hsu Chen-Yang CY Chen Ya-Mei YM Su Chiu-Wen CW Ku Mei-Sheng MS Kim Yeol Y Jensen Tim T Luh Dih-Ling DL

Journal of the Formosan Medical Association = Taiwan yi zhi 20210603

<h4>Background</h4>The COVID-19 outbreaks associated with mass religious gatherings which have the potential of invoking epidemics at large scale have been a great concern. This study aimed to evaluate the risk of outbreak in mass religious gathering and further to assess the preparedness of non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) for preventing COVID-19 outbreak in this context.<h4>Methods</h4>The risk of COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering was evaluated by using secondary COVID-19 ca ...[more]

PMID: 34119393

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Project description:BackgroundMass gathering (MG) events are associated with public health risks. During the period January 14 to March 4, 2019, Kumbh Mela in Prayagraj, India was attended by an estimated 120 million visitors. An onsite disease surveillance was established to identify and respond to disease outbreaks.MethodsA health coordination committee was established for planning. Disease surveillance was prioritized and risk assessment was done to identify diseases/conditions based on epidemic potential, severity of illness, and reporting requirement under the International Health Regulations (IHR) of 2005. A daily indicator and event-based disease surveillance was planned. The indicator-based surveillance (IBS) manually and electronically recorded data from patient hospital visits and collected MG area water testing data to assess trends. The event-based surveillance (EBS) helped identify outbreak signals based on pre-identified event triggers from the media, private health facilities, and the food safety department. Epidemic intelligence was used to analyse the data and events to detect signals, verify alerts, and initiate the response.ResultsAt Kumbh Mela, disease surveillance was established for 22 acute diseases/syndromes. Sixty-five health facilities reported 156 154 illnesses (21% of a total 738 526 hospital encounters). Among the reported illnesses, 95% (n = 148 834) were communicable diseases such as acute respiratory illness (n = 52 504, 5%), acute fever (n = 41 957, 28%), and skin infections (n = 27 094, 18%). The remaining 5% (n = 7300) were non-communicable diseases (injuries n = 6601, 90%; hypothermia n = 224, 3%; burns n = 210, 3%). Water samples tested inadequate for residual chlorine in 20% of samples (102/521). The incident command centre generated 12 early warning signals from IBS and EBS: acute diarrheal disease (n = 8, 66%), vector-borne disease (n = 2, 16%), vaccine-preventable disease (n = 1, 8%), and thermal event (n = 1, 8%). There were two outbreaks (acute gastroenteritis and chickenpox) that were investigated and controlled.ConclusionsThis onsite disease surveillance imparted a public health legacy by successfully implementing an epidemic intelligence enabled system for early disease detection and response to monitor public health risks. Acute respiratory illnesses emerged as a leading cause of morbidity among visitors. Future MG events should include disease surveillance as part of planning and augment capacity for acute respiratory illness diagnosis and management.

Project description:Background: Infectious diseases are common problems in mass gatherings, especially when there is a lack of health system preparedness. Since Iran is one of the most important countries on the walking path of Arbaeen and has a vital role in providing health services to pilgrims, the experiences of health challenges by participants is of key importance. The aim of this study is to explore stakeholders' experiences on the health system's preparedness and challenges, and to provide suggestions for preventing infectious diseases during the Arbaeen mass gathering. Methods: A qualitative research method was used with a conventional content analysis approach. The number of participants was 17, including 13 executive managers and 4 health policymakers who entered the study among participants. Semi-structured interviews were used to generate the data. Interviews were analyzed by means of content analysis after face-to-face interviews. Results: Data analysis resulted in the extraction of four main themes and 11 sub-themes. Health infrastructure defects in Iraq has three sub-themes (health abandonment in Iraq, the weaknesses in health culture and problems related to the health system); poor control of the causative factors of infectious diseases has three sub-themes (the underlying factors of the prevalence of contagious diseases, health system response to communicable diseases and ignoring the risks of the Arbaeen ceremony); the low perception of risk in pilgrims has three sub-themes (lack of awareness in pilgrims, fatalism in pilgrims and unhygienic belief in pilgrims); and the ineffectiveness of health education has two sub-themes (training shortage in the targeted group and educational content problems) that shows participant's experiences of the health system's challenges for coping with infectious diseases during the Arbaeen ceremony. Conclusion: Pilgrim-based training, planning and controlling other challenges may change these threats to opportunities and improve the health of participants of the mass gathering of Arbaeen in the region.

Dataset Information

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

Background

Methods

Results

Conclusion

Publications

Preparedness for containing COVID-19 outbreak in mass religious gathering with non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs).

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