Lockdown as a last resort option in case of COVID-19 epidemic rebound: a modelling study.

ABSTRACT: BackgroundGiven its high economic and societal cost, policymakers might be reluctant to implement a large-scale lockdown in case of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) epidemic rebound. They may consider it as a last resort option if alternative control measures fail to reduce transmission.AimWe developed a modelling framework to ascertain the use of lockdown to ensure intensive care unit (ICU) capacity does not exceed a peak target defined by policymakers.MethodsWe used a deterministic compartmental model describing transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the trajectories of COVID-19 patients in healthcare settings, accounting for age-specific mixing patterns and an increasing probability of severe outcomes with age. The framework is illustrated in the

SUBMITTER: Tran Kiem C 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8176673 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature