Estimation of the probability of daily fluctuations of incidence of COVID-19 according to official data.

ABSTRACT: When studying the dynamics of morbidity and mortality, one should not limit ourselves to analyzing general trends. Interesting information can be obtained from the analysis of deviations in morbidity and mortality from the general dynamics. Comparison of the cases of morbidity or death for adjacent time intervals allows us to find out whether the changes in conditions were for short periods of time and whether the cases of morbidity or death were independent. The article consists of two parts: Study of the probability distribution (CDF) of the difference between two independent observations of the Poisson distribution; Application of the results to analyze the morbidity and mortality trends by day for the new coronavirus infection. For the distribution function of the module of difference

SUBMITTER: Gerasimov A 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8183426 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature