Mathematical modelling of the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of pre-exposure prophylaxis.

ABSTRACT:

Objectives

HIV pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) may change serosorting patterns. We examined the influence of serosorting on the population-level HIV transmission impact of PrEP, and how impact could change if PrEP users stopped serosorting.

Design

We developed a compartmental HIV transmission model parameterized with bio-behavioural and HIV surveillance data among MSM in Canada.

Methods

We separately fit the model with serosorting and without serosorting [counterfactual; sero-proportionate mixing (random partner-selection proportional to availability by HIV status)], and reproduced stable HIV epidemics with HIV-prevalence 10.3-24.8%, undiagnosed fraction 4.9-15.8% and treatment coverage 82.5-88.4%. We simulated PrEP-intervention reaching stable pre-specified coverage

SUBMITTER: Wang L 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8183492 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature