Social, economic, and environmental factors influencing the basic reproduction number of COVID-19 across countries.

ABSTRACT:

Objective

To assess whether the basic reproduction number (R0) of COVID-19 is different across countries and what national-level demographic, social, and environmental factors other than interventions characterize initial vulnerability to the virus.

Methods

We fit logistic growth curves to reported daily case numbers, up to the first epidemic peak, for 58 countries for which 16 explanatory covariates are available. This fitting has been shown to robustly estimate R0 from the specified period. We then use a generalized additive model (GAM) to discern both linear and nonlinear effects, and include 5 random effect covariates to account for potential differences in testing and reporting that can bias the estimated R0.

Findings

We found that the mean R0 is 1.70 (S.D. 0.57)

SUBMITTER: Kong JD 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8189449 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature