Modelling to Quantify the Likelihood that Local Elimination of Transmission has Occurred Using Routine Gambiense Human African Trypanosomiasis Surveillance Data.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The gambiense human African trypanosomiasis (gHAT) elimination programme in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) routinely collects case data through passive surveillance and active screening, with several regions reporting no cases for several years, despite being endemic in the early 2000s.

Methods

We use mathematical models fitted to longitudinal data to estimate the probability that selected administrative regions have already achieved elimination of transmission (EOT) of gHAT. We examine the impact of active screening coverage on the certainty of model estimates for transmission and therefore the role of screening in the measurement of EOT.

Results

In 3 example health zones of Sud-Ubangi province, we find there is a moderate (>40%) probability that E

SUBMITTER: Davis CN 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8201550 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature