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Model-Based Geostatistical Methods Enable Efficient Design and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection and Other Neglected Tropical Diseases.

ABSTRACT: Maps of the geographical variation in prevalence play an important role in large-scale programs for the control of neglected tropical diseases. Precontrol mapping is needed to establish the appropriate control intervention in each area of the country in question. Mapping is also needed postintervention to measure the success of control efforts. In the absence of comprehensive disease registries, mapping efforts can be informed by 2 kinds of data: empirical estimates of local prevalence obtained by testing individuals from a sample of communities within the geographical region of interest, and digital images of environmental factors that are predictive of local prevalence. In this article, we focus on the design and analysis of impact surveys, that is, prevalence surveys that are conducted postintervention with the aim of informing decisions on what further intervention, if any, is needed to achieve elimination of the disease as a public health problem. We show that geospatial statistical methods enable prevalence surveys to be designed and analyzed as efficiently as possible so as to make best use of hard-won field data. We use 3 case studies based on data from soil-transmitted helminth impact surveys in Kenya, Sierra Leone, and Zimbabwe to compare the predictive performance of model-based geostatistics with methods described in current World Health Organization (WHO) guidelines. In all 3 cases, we find that model-based geostatistics substantially outperforms the current WHO guidelines, delivering improved precision for reduced field-sampling effort. We argue from experience that similar improvements will hold for prevalence mapping of other neglected tropical diseases.

SUBMITTER: Johnson O

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8201574 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Model-Based Geostatistical Methods Enable Efficient Design and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection and Other Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Johnson Olatunji O Fronterre Claudio C Amoah Benjamin B Montresor Antonio A Giorgi Emanuele E Midzi Nicholas N Mutsaka-Makuvaza Masceline Jenipher MJ Kargbo-Labor Ibrahim I Hodges Mary H MH Zhang Yaobi Y Okoyo Collins C Mwandawiro Charles C Minnery Mark M Diggle Peter J PJ

Clinical infectious diseases : an official publication of the Infectious Diseases Society of America 20210601 Suppl 3

Maps of the geographical variation in prevalence play an important role in large-scale programs for the control of neglected tropical diseases. Precontrol mapping is needed to establish the appropriate control intervention in each area of the country in question. Mapping is also needed postintervention to measure the success of control efforts. In the absence of comprehensive disease registries, mapping efforts can be informed by 2 kinds of data: empirical estimates of local prevalence obtained ...[more]

PMID: 33905476

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Project description:BackgroundThe Expanded Special Project for the Elimination of Neglected Tropical Diseases (ESPEN) was launched in 2019 by the World Health Organization and African nations to combat Neglected Tropical Diseases (NTDs), including Soil-transmitted helminths (STH), which still affect over 1.5 billion people globally. In this study, we present a comprehensive geostatistical analysis of publicly available STH survey data from ESPEN to delineate inter-country disparities in STH prevalence and its environmental drivers while highlighting the strengths and limitations that arise from the use of the ESPEN data. To achieve this, we also propose the use of calibration validation methods to assess the suitability of geostatistical models for disease mapping at the national scale.MethodsWe analysed the most recent survey data with at least 50 geo-referenced observations, and modelled each STH species data (hookworm, roundworm, whipworm) separately. Binomial geostatistical models were developed for each country, exploring associations between STH and environmental covariates, and were validated using the non-randomized probability integral transform. We produced pixel-, subnational-, and country-level prevalence maps for successfully calibrated countries. All the results were made publicly available through an R Shiny application.ResultsAmong 35 countries with STH data that met our inclusion criteria, the reported data years ranged from 2004 to 2018. Models from 25 countries were found to be well-calibrated. Spatial patterns exhibited significant variation in STH species distribution and heterogeneity in spatial correlation scale (1.14 km to 3,027.44 km) and residual spatial variation variance across countries.ConclusionThis study highlights the utility of ESPEN data in assessing spatial variations in STH prevalence across countries using model-based geostatistics. Despite the challenges posed by data sparsity which limit the application of geostatistical models, the insights gained remain crucial for directing focused interventions and shaping future STH assessment strategies within national control programs.

Project description:BackgroundSoil-transmitted helminth infections affect tens of millions of individuals in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China). There is a need for high-resolution estimates of at-risk areas and number of people infected to enhance spatial targeting of control interventions. However, such information is not yet available for P.R. China.MethodsA geo-referenced database compiling surveys pertaining to soil-transmitted helminthiasis, carried out from 2000 onwards in P.R. China, was established. Bayesian geostatistical models relating the observed survey data with potential climatic, environmental and socioeconomic predictors were developed and used to predict at-risk areas at high spatial resolution. Predictors were extracted from remote sensing and other readily accessible open-source databases. Advanced Bayesian variable selection methods were employed to develop a parsimonious model.ResultsOur results indicate that the prevalence of soil-transmitted helminth infections in P.R. China considerably decreased from 2005 onwards. Yet, some 144 million people were estimated to be infected in 2010. High prevalence (>20%) of the roundworm Ascaris lumbricoides infection was predicted for large areas of Guizhou province, the southern part of Hubei and Sichuan provinces, while the northern part and the south-eastern coastal-line areas of P.R. China had low prevalence (<5%). High infection prevalence (>20%) with hookworm was found in Hainan, the eastern part of Sichuan and the southern part of Yunnan provinces. High infection prevalence (>20%) with the whipworm Trichuris trichiura was found in a few small areas of south P.R. China. Very low prevalence (<0.1%) of hookworm and whipworm infections were predicted for the northern parts of P.R. China.ConclusionsWe present the first model-based estimates for soil-transmitted helminth infections throughout P.R. China at high spatial resolution. Our prediction maps provide useful information for the spatial targeting of soil-transmitted helminthiasis control interventions and for long-term monitoring and surveillance in the frame of enhanced efforts to control and eliminate the public health burden of these parasitic worm infections.

Project description:BackgroundThe acceleration of the control of soil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections in Nigeria, emphasizing preventive chemotherapy, has become imperative in light of the global fight against neglected tropical diseases. Predictive risk maps are an important tool to guide and support control activities.MethodologySTH infection prevalence data were obtained from surveys carried out in 2011 using standard protocols. Data were geo-referenced and collated in a nationwide, geographic information system database. Bayesian geostatistical models with remotely sensed environmental covariates and variable selection procedures were utilized to predict the spatial distribution of STH infections in Nigeria.Principal findingsWe found that hookworm, Ascaris lumbricoides, and Trichuris trichiura infections are endemic in 482 (86.8%), 305 (55.0%), and 55 (9.9%) locations, respectively. Hookworm and A. lumbricoides infection co-exist in 16 states, while the three species are co-endemic in 12 states. Overall, STHs are endemic in 20 of the 36 states of Nigeria, including the Federal Capital Territory of Abuja. The observed prevalence at endemic locations ranged from 1.7% to 51.7% for hookworm, from 1.6% to 77.8% for A. lumbricoides, and from 1.0% to 25.5% for T. trichiura. Model-based predictions ranged from 0.7% to 51.0% for hookworm, from 0.1% to 82.6% for A. lumbricoides, and from 0.0% to 18.5% for T. trichiura. Our models suggest that day land surface temperature and dense vegetation are important predictors of the spatial distribution of STH infection in Nigeria. In 2011, a total of 5.7 million (13.8%) school-aged children were predicted to be infected with STHs in Nigeria. Mass treatment at the local government area level for annual or bi-annual treatment of the school-aged population in Nigeria in 2011, based on World Health Organization prevalence thresholds, were estimated at 10.2 million tablets.Conclusions/significanceThe predictive risk maps and estimated deworming needs presented here will be helpful for escalating the control and spatial targeting of interventions against STH infections in Nigeria.

Project description:BackgroundThe results of the latest national survey on important human parasitic diseases in 2015-2016 showed Guangdong Province is still a moderately endemic area, with the weighted prevalence of soil-transmitted helminths (STHs) higher than the national average. High-resolution age- and gender-specific spatial-temporal risk maps can support the prevention and control of STHs, but not yet available in Guangdong.MethodologyGeoreferenced age- and gender-specific disease data of STH infections in Guangdong Province was derived from three national surveys on important human parasitic diseases, conducted in 1988-1992, 2002-2003, and 2015-2016, respectively. Potential influencing factors (e.g., environmental and socioeconomic factors) were collected from open-access databases. Bayesian geostatistical models were developed to analyze the above data, based on which, high-resolution maps depicting the STH infection risk were produced in the three survey years in Guangdong Province.Principal findingsThere were 120, 31, 71 survey locations in the first, second, and third national survey in Guangdong, respectively. The overall population-weighted prevalence of STH infections decreased significantly over time, from 68.66% (95% Bayesian credible interval, BCI: 64.51-73.06%) in 1988-1992 to 0.97% (95% BCI: 0.69-1.49%) in 2015-2016. In 2015-2016, only low to moderate infection risk were found across Guangdong, with hookworm becoming the dominant species. Areas with relatively higher risk (>5%) were mostly distributed in the western region. Females had higher infection risk of STHs than males. The infection risk of A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura were higher in children, while middle-aged and elderly people had higher infection risk of hookworm. Precipitation, elevation, land cover, and human influence index (HII) were significantly related with STH infection risk.Conclusions/significanceWe produced the high-resolution, age- and gender-specific risk maps of STH infections in the three national survey periods across nearly 30 years in Guangdong Province, which can provide important information assisting the control and prevention strategies.

Project description:BackgroundLarge cross-sectional household surveys are common for measuring indicators of neglected tropical disease control programs. As an alternative to standard paper-based data collection, we utilized novel paperless technology to collect data electronically from over 12,000 households in Ethiopia.MethodologyWe conducted a needs assessment to design an Android-based electronic data collection and management system. We then evaluated the system by reporting results of a pilot trial and from comparisons of two, large-scale surveys; one with traditional paper questionnaires and the other with tablet computers, including accuracy, person-time days, and costs incurred.Principle findingsThe electronic data collection system met core functions in household surveys and overcame constraints identified in the needs assessment. Pilot data recorders took 264 (standard deviation (SD) 152 sec) and 260 sec (SD 122 sec) per person registered to complete household surveys using paper and tablets, respectively (P = 0.77). Data recorders felt a lack of connection with the interviewee during the first days using electronic devices, but preferred to collect data electronically in future surveys. Electronic data collection saved time by giving results immediately, obviating the need for double data entry and cross-correcting. The proportion of identified data entry errors in disease classification did not differ between the two data collection methods. Geographic coordinates collected using the tablets were more accurate than coordinates transcribed on a paper form. Costs of the equipment required for electronic data collection was approximately the same cost incurred for data entry of questionnaires, whereas repeated use of the electronic equipment may increase cost savings.Conclusions/significanceConducting a needs assessment and pilot testing allowed the design to specifically match the functionality required for surveys. Electronic data collection using an Android-based technology was suitable for a large-scale health survey, saved time, provided more accurate geo-coordinates, and was preferred by recorders over standard paper-based questionnaires.

Project description:BackgroundIn South Asia, hundreds of millions of people are infected with soil-transmitted helminths (Ascaris lumbricoides, hookworm, and Trichuris trichiura). However, high-resolution risk profiles and the estimated number of people infected have yet to be determined. In turn, such information will assist control programs to identify priority areas for allocation of scarce resource for the control of soil-transmitted helminth infection.MethodologyWe pursued a systematic review to identify prevalence surveys pertaining to soil-transmitted helminth infections in four mainland countries (i.e., Bangladesh, India, Nepal, and Pakistan) of South Asia. PubMed and ISI Web of Science were searched from inception to April 25, 2019, without restriction of language, study design, and survey date. We utilized Bayesian geostatistical models to identify environmental and socioeconomic predictors, and to estimate infection risk at high spatial resolution across the study region.Principal findingsA total of 536, 490, and 410 georeferenced surveys were identified for A. lumbricoides, hookworm, and T. trichiura, respectively. We estimate that 361 million people (95% Bayesian credible interval (BCI) 331-395 million), approximately one-quarter of the South Asia population, was infected with at least one soil-transmitted helminth species in 2015. A. lumbricoides was the predominant species. Moderate to high prevalence (>20%) of any soil-transmitted helminth infection was predicted in the northeastern part and some northern areas of the study region, as well as the southern coastal areas of India. The annual treatment needs for the school-age population requiring preventive chemotherapy was estimated at 165 million doses (95% BCI: 146-185 million).Conclusions/significanceOur risk maps provide an overview of the geographic distribution of soil-transmitted helminth infection in four mainland countries of South Asia and highlight the need for up-to-date surveys to accurately evaluate the disease burden in the region.

Project description:BackgroundSoil-transmitted helminth (STH) infections are caused by roundworms (Ascaris lumbricoides), whipworms (Trichuris trichiura), and hookworms (Necator americanus and Ancylostoma duodenale). In Uganda, baseline surveys conducted during the late 1990s and early 2000s suggested STH infections were common, with prevalence >50% among surveyed schoolchildren. In 2003, a national program was launched with mass preventative chemotherapy (PC) and health education for children 1-14 years old. Little evidence is available to show the impact of national deworming.MethodsWe conducted population-based, cross-sectional household surveys in five districts (Buikwe, Kassanda, Kiryandongo, Kisoro, and Rubanda) in March and May 2022. Our primary objective was to estimate STH prevalence by species due to infections of any intensity and infections of moderate-to-heavy intensity among preschool-aged children (PSAC, 1-4 years old), school-aged children (SAC, 5-14 years old), and women of reproductive age (WRA, 15-49 years old). Laboratory technicians used duplicate Kato-Katz microscopy to determine fecal egg count.ResultsOverall, 3,352 PSAC; 3,884 SAC; and 1,226 WRA provided stool samples. The prevalence of any infection remained high in Kisoro at or above ~50% within all risk groups. In other districts, the prevalence of any infection ranged from approximately 5 to 16% among PSAC, 6 to 23% among SAC, and 12 to 19% among WRA. Moderate-to-heavy intensity infection prevalence was highest in Kisoro (~15-26%), followed by Rubanda (<5%), and was ≤1% in other districts. A. lumbricoides and T. trichiura infections were largely confined to Kisoro and Rubanda, whereas hookworm was most common in other districts.ConclusionsThe STH prevalence has decreased markedly in three districts in Uganda. Based on our findings, the national deworming program should consider decreasing PC distribution frequency in these districts per the World Health Organization guidelines. Efforts are needed to understand why the Kisoro and Rubanda districts did not demonstrate similar gains.

Dataset Information

Model-Based Geostatistical Methods Enable Efficient Design and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection and Other Neglected Tropical Diseases.

Publications

Model-Based Geostatistical Methods Enable Efficient Design and Analysis of Prevalence Surveys for Soil-Transmitted Helminth Infection and Other Neglected Tropical Diseases.

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