Modeling vaccination rollouts, SARS-CoV-2 variants and the requirement for non-pharmaceutical interventions in Italy.

ABSTRACT: Despite progress in clinical care for patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)¹, population-wide interventions are still crucial to manage the pandemic, which has been aggravated by the emergence of new, highly transmissible variants. In this study, we combined the SIDARTHE model², which predicts the spread of SARS-CoV-2 infections, with a new data-based model that projects new cases onto casualties and healthcare system costs. Based on the Italian case study, we outline several scenarios: mass vaccination campaigns with different paces, different transmission rates due to new variants and different enforced countermeasures, including the alternation of opening and closure phases. Our results demonstrate that non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) have a hig

SUBMITTER: Giordano G 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8205853 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature