Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.

ABSTRACT: In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases in NL from 14 March to 26 June. We predicted possible outbreaks over nine weeks, with and without the travel restrictions, and for contact rates 40-70% of pre-pandemic levels. Our results suggest that the travel restrictions reduced the mean number of clinical COVID-19 cases in NL by 92%. Furthermore, without the travel restrictions there is a substantial risk of very large outbreaks. Using epidemic modelling, we show how the NL COVID-19 outbreak could have unfolded had the travel restrictions not been implemented. Both physical distancing and travel restrictions affect the local dynamics of the epidemic. Our modelling shows that the travel restrictions are a plausible reason for the few reported COVID-19 cases in NL after 4 May.

SUBMITTER: Hurford A

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8206704 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Hurford Amy A Rahman Proton P Loredo-Osti J Concepción JC

Royal Society open science 20210616 6

In many jurisdictions, public health authorities have implemented travel restrictions to reduce coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) spread. Policies that restrict travel within countries have been implemented, but the impact of these restrictions is not well known. On 4 May 2020, Newfoundland and Labrador (NL) implemented travel restrictions such that non-residents required exemptions to enter the province. We fit a stochastic epidemic model to data describing the number of active COVID-19 cases ...[more]

PMID: 34150314

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Project description:Globally, fisheries have been the site of multiple documented outbreaks of COVID-19. Existing studies point to the threat posed by the pandemic to livelihoods and health among migrant industrial fishery workers, small-scale fish harvesters, and fishing communities. They show the pandemic enhanced safety, economic, social and political layers of vulnerability in fisheries, while also showcasing examples of resilience. Case studies of COVID-19 response provide an opportunity to explore how existing organizational structures, leadership and networks in fisheries can enable the rapid co-development of customized strategies for fishing safely during large-scale global disruptions such as pandemics. This article contributes to our understanding of governance and fishing safety in small-scale fisheries during the early pandemic, examining the response of small-scale fisheries in the Canadian province of Newfoundland and Labrador. These seasonal fisheries successfully opened with regulator approval after a short delay and operated without documented COVID-19 outbreaks during 2020. Findings draw from key informant interviews with a safety sector association and union leader, complemented with insights from an anonymous online survey of small-scale harvesters. Interviews capture the organizational processes and resources mobilized to rapidly co-develop the COVID-19 Safe Work Practice Guideline. Online survey findings indicate that fifty-nine percent of respondents (crew and skippers) had no COVID-19-related concerns while fishing in 2020; older harvesters and owner-operators were significantly more likely to indicate concerns. When asked about the relative practicality of listed COVID-19 precautions, respondents commonly identified sanitization, reduced interactions with shore workers, social distancing, protection equipment, modifications to eating/rest areas, and reduced crew as impractical. These assessments are generally consistent with those of the interviewed leaders and the Guideline approach. This suggests the co-developed Guideline provided tailored and practical COVID-19 prevention strategies. Pre-existing governance structures and networks can help address small-scale fisheries vulnerabilities to pandemics by supporting co-development of organizational resources and evidence-informed prevention strategies.

Project description:ObjectiveAs the potential spread of COVID-19 sparked by imported cases from overseas will pose continuous challenges, it is essential to estimate the effects of control measures on reducing the importation risk of COVID-19. Our objective is to provide a framework of methodology for quantifying the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine on managing the importation risk of COVID-19 and other pandemics by leveraging different sets of parameters.MethodsThree major categories of control measures on controlling importation risk were parameterized and modelled by the framework: 1) entry restrictions, 2) travel quarantine, and 3) domestic containment measures. Integrating the parameterized intensity of control measures, a modified SEIR model was developed to simulate the case importation and local epidemic under different scenarios of global epidemic dynamics. A web-based tool was also provided to enable interactive visualization of epidemic simulation.ResultsThe simulated number of case importation and local spread modelled by the proposed framework of methods fitted well to the historical epidemic curve of China and Singapore. Based on the simulation results, the total numbers of infected cases when reducing 30% of visitor arrivals would be 88·4 (IQR 87·5-89·6) and 58·8 (IQR 58·3-59·5) times more than those when reducing 99% of visitor arrivals in mainland China and Singapore respectively, assuming actual time-varying Rt and travel quarantine policy. If the number of global daily new infections reached 100,000, 85%-91% of inbound travels should be reduced to keep the daily new infected number below 100 for a country with a similar travel volume as Singapore (daily 52,000 tourist arrivals in 2019). Whereas if the number was lower than 10,000, the daily new infected case would be less than 100 even with no entry restrictions.DiscussionsWe proposed a framework that first estimated the intensity of travel restrictions and local containment measures for countries since the first overseas imported case. Our approach then quantified the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine using a modified SEIR model to simulate the potential epidemic spread under hypothetical intensities of these control measures. We also developed a web-based system that enables interactive simulation, which could serve as a valuable tool for health system administrators to assess policy effects on managing the importation risk. By leveraging different sets of parameters, it could adapt to any specific country and specific type of epidemic.ConclusionsThis framework has provided a valuable tool to parameterize the intensity of control measures, simulate both the case importation and local epidemic, and quantify the combined effects of entry restrictions and travel quarantine on managing the importation risk.

Dataset Information

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.

Publications

Modelling the impact of travel restrictions on COVID-19 cases in Newfoundland and Labrador.

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