Inadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade.
Ontology highlight
ABSTRACT:
SUBMITTER: Kuschnig N
PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213779 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun
REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature
Publications
Inadequate methods undermine a study of malaria, deforestation and trade.
Nature communications 20210618 1
Similar Datasets
Project description:Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.
| S-EPMC7062889 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Import restrictions on deforestation-linked commodities have been enacted with the goal of reducing global deforestation and emissions. However, the limited market share of importers imposing such restrictions and the potential for emissions leakage could reduce their effectiveness. Moreover, they could result in negative economic implications for producers and consumers. We quantify future emissions and economic implications of oil palm and soybean import restrictions. Current EU restrictions are likely to have minimal impact due to the EU's otherwise small and declining share of global palm and soy demand. If extended beyond the EU, import restrictions could lead to reductions in cumulative land use change (LUC) emissions by 2050 in key oil crop exporting regions - up to 1.6% in Indonesia, 2.1% in the rest of Southeast Asia, 4.6% in Argentina, and 8.3% in Brazil compared to a no restrictions scenario. Globally, however, direct forest protection could be more effective than indirect protection through import restrictions due to emissions leakage. Meanwhile, import restrictions could cause major exporters to lose $0.1-$280 billion in cumulative agricultural production revenues by 2050. More broadly, our study highlights that the effectiveness of import restriction policies in reducing global emissions will likely depend on coordinated action across major oil crop producing and consuming regions.
| S-EPMC11814280 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Over the last few years, understanding of the effects of increasingly interconnected global flows of agricultural commodities on coupled human and natural systems has significantly improved. However, many important factors in environmental change that are influenced by these commodity flows are still not well understood. Here, we present an empirical spatial modelling approach to assess how changes in forest cover are influenced by trade destination. Using data for soybean-producing municipalities in the state of Mato Grosso, Brazil, between 2004 and 2017, we evaluated the relationships between forest cover change and the annual soybean trade destination. Results show that although most of the soybean produced in Mato Grosso during the study period (60%) was destined for international markets, municipalities with greater and more consistent soybean production not destined for international markets during the study period were more strongly associated with deforestation. In these municipalities, soybean production was also significantly correlated with cattle and pasture expansion. These results have important implications for the sustainable management of natural resources in the face of an increasingly interconnected world, while also helping to identify the most suitable locations for implementing policies to reduce deforestation risks.
| S-EPMC10338464 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Deforestation and land use change are among the most pressing anthropogenic environmental impacts. In Brazil, a resurgence of malaria in recent decades paralleled rapid deforestation and settlement in the Amazon basin, yet evidence of a deforestation-driven increase in malaria remains equivocal. We hypothesize an underlying cause of this ambiguity is that deforestation and malaria influence each other in bidirectional causal relationships-deforestation increases malaria through ecological mechanisms and malaria reduces deforestation through socioeconomic mechanisms-and that the strength of these relationships depends on the stage of land use transformation. We test these hypotheses with a large geospatial dataset encompassing 795 municipalities across 13 y (2003 to 2015) and show deforestation has a strong positive effect on malaria incidence. Our results suggest a 10% increase in deforestation leads to a 3.3% increase in malaria incidence (?9,980 additional cases associated with 1,567 additional km2 lost in 2008, the study midpoint, Amazon-wide). The effect is larger in the interior and absent in outer Amazonian states where little forest remains. However, this strong effect is only detectable after controlling for a feedback of malaria burden on forest loss, whereby increased malaria burden significantly reduces forest clearing, possibly mediated by human behavior or economic development. We estimate a 1% increase in malaria incidence results in a 1.4% decrease in forest area cleared (?219 fewer km2 cleared associated with 3,024 additional cases in 2008). This bidirectional socioecological feedback between deforestation and malaria, which attenuates as land use intensifies, illustrates the intimate ties between environmental change and human health.
| S-EPMC6825316 | biostudies-literature
Project description:ObjectiveAnalyse the transnational tobacco companies' (TTCs) memoranda of understanding (MoUs) on illicit trade and how they could undermine the WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control (FCTC) and the Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products (Protocol).MethodsReview of tobacco industry documents and websites, reports, news and media items using standard snowball search methods.ResultsFacing increasing pressure from governments and the FCTC to address illicit tobacco trade during the late 1990s, TTCs entered into voluntary partnerships embodied in MoUs with governments' law enforcement and customs agencies. One of the earliest known MoUs was between Philip Morris International and Italy in 1999. TTCs agreed among themselves to establish MoUs individually but use the Italian MoU as a basis to establish similar connections with other governments to pre-empt more stringent regulation of illicit trade. TTCs report to have signed over 100 MoUs since 1999, and promote them on their websites, in Corporate Social Responsibility reports and in the media as important partnerships to combat illicit tobacco trade. There is no evidence to support TTCs' claims that these MoUs reduce illicit trade. The terms of these MoUs are rarely made public. MoUs are non-transparent partnerships between government agencies and TTCs, violating FCTC Article 5.3 and the Protocol. MoUs are not legally binding so do not create an accountability system or penalties for non-compliance, rendering them ineffective at controlling illicit trade.ConclusionGovernments should reject TTC partnerships through MoUs and instead ratify and implement the FCTC and the Protocol to effectively address illicit trade in tobacco products.
| S-EPMC6639151 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Tropical forest diversity is simultaneously threatened by habitat loss and exploitation for wildlife trade. Quantitative conservation assessments have previously considered these threats separately, yet their impacts frequently act together. We integrate forest extent maps in 2000 and 2015 with a method of quantifying exploitation pressure based upon a species' commercial value and forest accessibility. We do so for 308 forest-dependent bird species, of which 77 are commercially traded, in the Southeast Asian biodiversity hotspot of Sundaland. We find 89% (274) of species experienced average habitat losses of 16% and estimate exploitation led to mean population declines of 37%. Assessing the combined impacts of deforestation and exploitation indicates the average losses of exploited species are much higher (54%), nearly doubling the regionally endemic species (from 27 to 51) threatened with extinction that should be IUCN Red Listed. Combined assessment of major threats is vital to accurately quantify biodiversity loss.
| S-EPMC6170487 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The complex transmission ecologies of vector-borne and zoonotic diseases pose challenges to their control, especially in changing landscapes. Human incidence of zoonotic malaria ( Plasmodium knowlesi) is associated with deforestation although mechanisms are unknown. Here, a novel application of a method for predicting disease occurrence that combines machine learning and statistics is used to identify the key spatial scales that define the relationship between zoonotic malaria cases and environmental change. Using data from satellite imagery, a case-control study, and a cross-sectional survey, predictive models of household-level occurrence of P. knowlesi were fitted with 16 variables summarized at 11 spatial scales simultaneously. The method identified a strong and well-defined peak of predictive influence of the proportion of cleared land within 1 km of households on P. knowlesi occurrence. Aspect (1 and 2 km), slope (0.5 km) and canopy regrowth (0.5 km) were important at small scales. By contrast, fragmentation of deforested areas influenced P. knowlesi occurrence probability most strongly at large scales (4 and 5 km). The identification of these spatial scales narrows the field of plausible mechanisms that connect land use change and P. knowlesi, allowing for the refinement of disease occurrence predictions and the design of spatially-targeted interventions.
| S-EPMC6367187 | biostudies-literature
Project description:As countries in the Greater Mekong Sub-region (GMS) increasingly focus their malaria control and elimination efforts on reducing forest-related transmission, greater understanding of the relationship between deforestation and malaria incidence will be essential for programs to assess and meet their 2030 elimination goals. Leveraging village-level health facility surveillance data and forest cover data in a spatio-temporal modeling framework, we found evidence that deforestation is associated with short-term increases, but long-term decreases confirmed malaria case incidence in Lao People's Democratic Republic (Lao PDR). We identified strong associations with deforestation measured within 30 km of villages but not with deforestation in the near (10 km) and immediate (1 km) vicinity. Results appear driven by deforestation in densely forested areas and were more pronounced for infections with Plasmodium falciparum (P. falciparum) than for Plasmodium vivax (P. vivax). These findings highlight the influence of forest activities on malaria transmission in the GMS.
| S-EPMC8024023 | biostudies-literature
Project description:The relationship between deforestation and malaria is a spatiotemporal process of variation in Plasmodium incidence in human-dominated Amazonian rural environments. The present study aimed to assess the underlying mechanisms of malarial exposure risk at a fine scale in 5-km2 sites across the Brazilian Amazon, using field-collected data with a longitudinal spatiotemporally structured approach. Anopheline mosquitoes were sampled from 80 sites to investigate the Plasmodium infection rate in mosquito communities and to estimate the malaria exposure risk in rural landscapes. The remaining amount of forest cover (accumulated deforestation) and the deforestation timeline were estimated in each site to represent the main parameters of both the frontier malaria hypothesis and an alternate scenario, the deforestation-malaria hypothesis, proposed herein. The maximum frequency of pathogenic sites occurred at the intermediate forest cover level (50% of accumulated deforestation) at two temporal deforestation peaks, e.g., 10 and 35 years after the beginning of the organization of a settlement. The incidence density of infected anophelines in sites where the original forest cover decreased by more than 50% in the first 25 years of settlement development was at least twice as high as the incidence density calculated for the other sites studied (adjusted incidence density ratio = 2.25; 95% CI, 1.38-3.68; p = 0.001). The results of this study support the frontier malaria as a unifying hypothesis for explaining malaria emergence and for designing specific control interventions in the Brazilian Amazon.
| S-EPMC7979798 | biostudies-literature
Project description:Ecosystem change can profoundly affect human well-being and health, including through changes in exposure to vector-borne diseases. Deforestation has increased human exposure to mosquito vectors and malaria risk in Africa, but there is little understanding of how socioeconomic and ecological factors influence the relationship between deforestation and malaria risk. We examined these interrelationships in six sub-Saharan African countries using demographic and health survey data linked to remotely sensed environmental variables for 11,746 children under 5 years old. We found that the relationship between deforestation and malaria prevalence varies by wealth levels. Deforestation is associated with increased malaria prevalence in the poorest households, but there was not significantly increased malaria prevalence in the richest households, suggesting that deforestation has disproportionate negative health impacts on the poor. In poorer households, malaria prevalence was 27%-33% larger for one standard deviation increase in deforestation across urban and rural populations. Deforestation is also associated with increased malaria prevalence in regions where Anopheles gambiae and Anopheles funestus are dominant vectors, but not in areas of Anopheles arabiensis. These findings indicate that deforestation is an important driver of malaria risk among the world's most vulnerable children, and its impact depends critically on often-overlooked social and biological factors. An in-depth understanding of the links between ecosystems and human health is crucial in designing conservation policies that benefit people and the environment.
| S-EPMC10902572 | biostudies-literature