Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures.

ABSTRACT: Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions amplify their public health benefits while reducing costs. We derive optimal strategies for toggling between mitigation stages using daily COVID-19 hospital admissions. With public compliance, the policy triggers ensure adequate intensive care unit capacity with high probability while minimizing the duration of strict mitigation measures. In comparison, we show that other sensible COVID-19 staging policies, including France's ICU-based thresholds and a widely adopted indicator for reopening schools and businesses, require overly restrictive measures or trigger strict stages too late to ave

SUBMITTER: Yang H 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8213780 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature