Is convalescent plasma futile in COVID-19? A Bayesian re-analysis of the RECOVERY randomized controlled trial.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Randomized trials are generally performed from a frequentist perspective, which can conflate absence of evidence with evidence of absence. The RECOVERY trial evaluated convalescent plasma for patients hospitalized with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) and concluded that there was no evidence of an effect. Re-analysis from a Bayesian perspective is warranted.

Methods

Outcome data were extracted from the RECOVERY trial by serostatus and time of presentation. A Bayesian re-analysis with a wide variety of priors (vague, optimistic, sceptical, and pessimistic) was performed, calculating the posterior probability for: any benefit, an absolute risk difference of 0.5% (small benefit, number needed to treat 200), and an absolute risk difference of one percentage point (

SUBMITTER: Hamilton FW 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8214317 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature