The differential importation risks of COVID-19 from inbound travellers and the feasibility of targeted travel controls: A case study in Hong Kong.

ABSTRACT:

Background

Many countries/regions implemented strict border measures (e.g., 14-day quarantines) as a blanket policy to prevent COVID-19 importations, while proposed "travel bubbles" as an alternative to reduce the impact of border controls. We aim to examine the differential importation risks with departure origins and post-arrival controls.

Methods

We developed a Bayesian framework to model disease progress of COVID-19 and the effectiveness of travel measures and inferred the origin-specific disease prevalence among inbound travellers, using data on passengers arriving in Hong Kong and laboratory-confirmed imported cases. We estimated the origin-specific risks of releasing infectious travellers under different control strategies and traveller volumes. We also estimated the

SUBMITTER: Yang B 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8214928 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature