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Quickest Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Onset.

ABSTRACT: This paper develops an easily-implementable version of Page's CUSUM quickest-detection test, designed to work in certain composite hypothesis scenarios with time-varying data statistics. The decision statistic can be cast in a recursive form and is particularly suited for on-line analysis. By back-testing our approach on publicly-available COVID-19 data we find reliable early warning of infection flare-ups, in fact sufficiently early that the tool may be of use to decision-makers on the timing of restrictive measures that may in the future need to be taken.

SUBMITTER: Braca P

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8216249 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Quickest Detection of COVID-19 Pandemic Onset.

Braca P P Gaglione D D Marano S S Millefiori L M LM Willett P P Pattipati K K

IEEE signal processing letters 20210324

This paper develops an easily-implementable version of Page's CUSUM quickest-detection test, designed to work in certain composite hypothesis scenarios with time-varying data statistics. The decision statistic can be cast in a recursive form and is particularly suited for on-line analysis. By back-testing our approach on publicly-available COVID-19 data we find reliable early warning of infection flare-ups, in fact sufficiently early that the tool may be of use to decision-makers on the timing o ...[more]

PMID: 34163125

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