Predicting HIV Incidence in the SEARCH Trial: A Mathematical Modeling Study.

ABSTRACT:

Background

The SEARCH study provided community-based HIV and multidisease testing and antiretroviral therapy (ART) to 32 communities in East Africa and reported no statistically significant difference in 3-year HIV incidence. We used mathematical modeling to estimate the effect of control arm viral suppression and community mixing on SEARCH trial outcomes.

Setting

Uganda and Kenya.

Methods

Using the individual-based HIV modeling software EMOD-HIV, we configured a new model of SEARCH communities. The model was parameterized using demographic, HIV prevalence, male circumcision, and viral suppression data and calibrated to HIV prevalence, ART coverage, and population size. Using assumptions about ART scale-up in the control arm, degree of community mixing, and effect of

SUBMITTER: Jewell BL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8217115 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Aug

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature