The impact of super-spreader cities, highways, and intensive care availability in the early stages of the COVID-19 epidemic in Brazil.

ABSTRACT: Although international airports served as main entry points for SARS-CoV-2, the factors driving the uneven geographic spread of COVID-19 cases and deaths in Brazil remain mostly unknown. Here we show that three major factors influenced the early macro-geographical dynamics of COVID-19 in Brazil. Mathematical modeling revealed that the "super-spreading city" of São Paulo initially accounted for more than 85% of the case spread in the entire country. By adding only 16 other spreading cities, we accounted for 98-99% of the cases reported during the first 3 months of the pandemic in Brazil. Moreover, 26 federal highways accounted for about 30% of SARS-CoV-2's case spread. As cases increased in the Brazilian interior, the distribution of COVID-19 deaths began to correlate with the allocation of

SUBMITTER: Nicolelis MAL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8217556 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature