Quantifying heterogeneity in SARS-CoV-2 transmission during the lockdown in India.

ABSTRACT: The novel SARS-CoV-2 virus, as it manifested in India in April 2020, showed marked heterogeneity in its transmission. Here, we used data collected from contact tracing during the lockdown in response to the first wave of COVID-19 in Punjab, a major state in India, to quantify this heterogeneity, and to examine implications for transmission dynamics. We found evidence of heterogeneity acting at multiple levels: in the number of potentially infectious contacts per index case, and in the per-contact risk of infection. Incorporating these findings in simple mathematical models of disease transmission reveals that these heterogeneities act in combination to strongly influence transmission dynamics. Standard approaches, such as representing heterogeneity through secondary case distributions, cou

SUBMITTER: Arinaminpathy N 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8219474 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Sep

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature