An integrated risk and epidemiological model to estimate risk-stratified COVID-19 outcomes for Los Angeles County: March 1, 2020-March 1, 2021.

ABSTRACT: The objective of this study was to use available data on the prevalence of COVID-19 risk factors in subpopulations and epidemic dynamics at the population level to estimate probabilities of severe illness and the case and infection fatality rates (CFR and IFR) stratified across subgroups representing all combinations of the risk factors age, comorbidities, obesity, and smoking status. We focus on the first year of the epidemic in Los Angeles County (LAC) (March 1, 2020-March 1, 2021), spanning three epidemic waves. A relative risk modeling approach was developed to estimate conditional effects from available marginal data. A dynamic stochastic epidemic model was developed to produce time-varying population estimates of epidemic parameters including the transmission and infection observatio

SUBMITTER: Horn AL 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8224896 | biostudies-literature | 2021

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature