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Machine Learning to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Using Computed Tomography-Derived Pulmonary and Vascular Features.


ABSTRACT: Pulmonary parenchymal and vascular damage are frequently reported in COVID-19 patients and can be assessed with unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT), widely used as a triaging exam. Integrating clinical data, chest CT features, and CT-derived vascular metrics, we aimed to build a predictive model of in-hospital mortality using univariate analysis (Mann-Whitney U test) and machine learning models (support vectors machines (SVM) and multilayer perceptrons (MLP)). Patients with RT-PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection and unenhanced chest CT performed on emergency department admission were included after retrieving their outcome (discharge or death), with an 85/15% training/test dataset split. Out of 897 patients, the 229 (26%) patients who died during hospitalization had higher median pulmonary artery diameter (29.0 mm) than patients who survived (27.0 mm, p < 0.001) and higher median ascending aortic diameter (36.6 mm versus 34.0 mm, p < 0.001). SVM and MLP best models considered the same ten input features, yielding a 0.747 (precision 0.522, recall 0.800) and 0.844 (precision 0.680, recall 0.567) area under the curve, respectively. In this model integrating clinical and radiological data, pulmonary artery diameter was the third most important predictor after age and parenchymal involvement extent, contributing to reliable in-hospital mortality prediction, highlighting the value of vascular metrics in improving patient stratification.

SUBMITTER: Schiaffino S 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8230339 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Machine Learning to Predict In-Hospital Mortality in COVID-19 Patients Using Computed Tomography-Derived Pulmonary and Vascular Features.

Schiaffino Simone S   Codari Marina M   Cozzi Andrea A   Albano Domenico D   Alì Marco M   Arioli Roberto R   Avola Emanuele E   Bnà Claudio C   Cariati Maurizio M   Carriero Serena S   Cressoni Massimo M   Danna Pietro S C PSC   Della Pepa Gianmarco G   Di Leo Giovanni G   Dolci Francesco F   Falaschi Zeno Z   Flor Nicola N   Foà Riccardo A RA   Gitto Salvatore S   Leati Giovanni G   Magni Veronica V   Malavazos Alexis E AE   Mauri Giovanni G   Messina Carmelo C   Monfardini Lorenzo L   Paschè Alessio A   Pesapane Filippo F   Sconfienza Luca M LM   Secchi Francesco F   Segalini Edoardo E   Spinazzola Angelo A   Tombini Valeria V   Tresoldi Silvia S   Vanzulli Angelo A   Vicentin Ilaria I   Zagaria Domenico D   Fleischmann Dominik D   Sardanelli Francesco F  

Journal of personalized medicine 20210603 6


Pulmonary parenchymal and vascular damage are frequently reported in COVID-19 patients and can be assessed with unenhanced chest computed tomography (CT), widely used as a triaging exam. Integrating clinical data, chest CT features, and CT-derived vascular metrics, we aimed to build a predictive model of in-hospital mortality using univariate analysis (Mann-Whitney <i>U</i> test) and machine learning models (support vectors machines (SVM) and multilayer perceptrons (MLP)). Patients with RT-PCR-c  ...[more]

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