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Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.

ABSTRACT: SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios (IFR) remain controversially discussed with implications for political measures. The German county of Tirschenreuth suffered a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020, with particularly high case fatality ratio (CFR). To estimate seroprevalence, underreported infections, and IFR for the Tirschenreuth population aged ≥14 years in June/July 2020, we conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SARS-CoV-2 antibodies via three antibody tests. Latent class analysis yielded 8.6% standardized county-wide seroprevalence, a factor of underreported infections of 5.0, and 2.5% overall IFR. Seroprevalence was two-fold higher among medical workers and one third among current smokers with similar proportions of registered infections. While seroprevalence did not show an age-trend, the factor of underreported infections was 12.2 in the young versus 1.7 for ≥85-year-old. Age-specific IFRs were <0.5% below 60 years of age, 1.0% for age 60-69, and 13.2% for age 70+. Senior care homes accounted for 45% of COVID-19-related deaths, reflected by an IFR of 7.5% among individuals aged 70+ and an overall IFR of 1.4% when excluding senior care home residents from our computation. Our data underscore senior care home infections as key determinant of IFR additionally to age, insufficient targeted testing in the young, and the need for further investigations on behavioral or molecular causes of the fewer infections among current smokers.

SUBMITTER: Wagner R

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8230374 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature

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Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.

Wagner Ralf R Peterhoff David D Beileke Stephanie S Günther Felix F Berr Melanie M Einhauser Sebastian S Schütz Anja A Niller Hans Helmut HH Steininger Philipp P Knöll Antje A Tenbusch Matthias M Maier Clara C Korn Klaus K Stark Klaus J KJ Gessner André A Burkhardt Ralph R Kabesch Michael M Schedl Holger H Küchenhoff Helmut H Pfahlberg Annette B AB Heid Iris M IM Gefeller Olaf O Überla Klaus K

Viruses 20210610 6

SARS-CoV-2 infection fatality ratios (IFR) remain controversially discussed with implications for political measures. The German county of Tirschenreuth suffered a severe SARS-CoV-2 outbreak in spring 2020, with particularly high case fatality ratio (CFR). To estimate seroprevalence, underreported infections, and IFR for the Tirschenreuth population aged ≥14 years in June/July 2020, we conducted a population-based study including home visits for the elderly, and analyzed 4203 participants for SA ...[more]

PMID: 34200766

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Project description:We undertook a comprehensive, systematic review of observational studies to estimate respective seroprevalences of latent and acute Toxoplasma gondii infections in HIV+ people at the global, regional and country levels; related seroprevalence to socio-economic variables and CD4+ cell counts; and assessed temporal changes in prevalence and risk factors for this group. We systematically searched international databases for seroepidemiological surveys between 1 January 1980 and 31 July 2020. We used a random effects model to calculate pooled seroprevalences with 95% confidence intervals (CI), and estimated the numbers of HIV+ people inferred to harbour latent and acute T. gondii infections (LT or AT). We grouped seroprevalence data according to the geographic regions defined by the World Health Organization (WHO) and conducted subgroup and meta-regression analyses of the data. Of a total of 4024 studies identified, 150 and 65 of them met the inclusion criteria for LT and AT in HIV+ people, respectively. The overall, pooled seroprevalences of LT and AT were 37.4% (95% CI, 33.4-41.4) and 1.3% (95% CI, 0.9-1.8%), equating to ~14.2 and 0.5 million HIV+ people, respectively. Most HIV+ people with T. gondii infections originated from Africa, and the highest seroprevalences were in low-income countries with low human development indices. Significant risk factors for toxoplasmosis in HIV+ patients included the consumption of raw/undercooked meat, frequent contact with soil, a low CD4+ T lymphocyte number (<200 cells per μL) and age. Overall, the finding of high seroprevalences of particularly latent T. gondii infection in HIV+ people in underprivileged regions of the world, such as parts of Africa, calls for preventative action. Programs that include routine serological monitoring, counselling, care, animal control and/or prophylactic treatment measures are needed to prevent severe toxoplasmosis from developing in people living with HIV infection. Our study highlights the potential importance of parasite chemoprophylaxis in resource-poor settings, particularly in low-income countries.

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Dataset Information

Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.

Publications

Estimates and Determinants of SARS-Cov-2 Seroprevalence and Infection Fatality Ratio Using Latent Class Analysis: The Population-Based Tirschenreuth Study in the Hardest-Hit German County in Spring 2020.

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