Limited Predictability of Amino Acid Substitutions in Seasonal Influenza Viruses.

ABSTRACT: Seasonal influenza viruses repeatedly infect humans in part because they rapidly change their antigenic properties and evade host immune responses, necessitating frequent updates of the vaccine composition. Accurate predictions of strains circulating in the future could therefore improve the vaccine match. Here, we studied the predictability of frequency dynamics and fixation of amino acid substitutions. Current frequency was the strongest predictor of eventual fixation, as expected in neutral evolution. Other properties, such as occurrence in previously characterized epitopes or high Local Branching Index (LBI) had little predictive power. Parallel evolution was found to be moderately predictive of fixation. Although the LBI had little power to predict frequency dynamics, it was still suc

SUBMITTER: Barrat-Charlaix P 

PROVIDER: S-EPMC8233509 | biostudies-literature | 2021 Jun

REPOSITORIES: biostudies-literature